Fantasy Currency Trader (Pound to Euro) - 2015 GBP/EUR Exchange Rate Forecast to Strengthen

September 25, 2014 - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Fantasy Currency Trader (Pound to Euro) - 2015 GBP/EUR Exchange Rate Forecast to Strengthen

UK Pound to euro forecast 2014/2015: In a continuation of our ‘Fantasy Currency Trader’ series, the leading exchange rate forecaster at Currency News makes his predictions for the future prospects for one of the major global currency pairs, including his future currency forecast for their future performance targets. Track his predictions in the Fantasy Currency Trader column, below...

The past two weeks have brought wild fluctuations for one major currency pair in particular – the Pound Sterling to euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR). The Pound slumped to a near-term low of 1.2485 on Tuesday 16th September against the euro (currency:EUR). The shift lower for the pair followed hot on the heels of the YouGov poll published in the Sunday Times two days previously which suggested that the ‘Yes’ campaign was about to win the day in the Scottish independence referendum. The prospect of a break-up of the 307-year old United Kingdom spooked Sterling holders, causing a pronounced move against the Pound.

However, Sterling soon steadied its ship as subsequent opinion polls hinted that the ‘Better Together’ campaign was moving into a comfortable lead. When the official referendum result was announced during early trading last Friday, GBP EUR broke to a fresh 26-month high of 1.2804. The pair has remained within spitting distance of this key level of resistance during the intervening period, without breaking through it. The closest Sterling came to a fresh peak came yesterday as support for the single currency eased further following the release of a weak German confidence survey.

Looking at the bigger picture, the GBP EUR exchange rate has been locked in a steady technical uptrend since its July 2013 low of 1.1403. It would appear massively unlikely that this move upwards has run out of momentum just yet, but consecutive closes above the pair’s range-topping level of 1.2804 will be required in order to provide confirmation of this. With recent official data suggesting that the European Central Bank’s targeted Long Term Re-financing Operations have had a disappointing uptake, there is likely to be a further near-term loosening of monetary policy in the euroland.

For this reason, our recommendation is to BUY the Pound Sterling euro exchange rate from its current level of 1.2783 GBP EUR with a block of GBP10,000. A short-term target for the trade comes at October 2008’s multi-decade high of 1.2994. Keep checking back on this column to see how we get on!

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John's new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way, ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Currency Predictions Euro Forecasts Euro Pound Forecasts Fantasy Cu Forecasts