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Pound to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) Exchange Rate Forecast to Trend within Narrow Range as Crude Holds above $60, RBI Flirts with Rate Cut

June 24, 2015 - Written by John Cameron

USD to INR Exchange Rate Gains as US GDP Revised

The Pound to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rate continued trending in a narrow range on Thursday ahead of the release of the Confederation of British Industry's Reported Sales figure. However, the USD to INR currency pair gained on Wednesday after the US annualized first quarter growth data was revised from -0.7% to -0.2%.


GBP/INR, GBP/USD Exchange Rates Trend in Narrow Range

The Pound Sterling to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rate was trending within a limited range on Wednesday afternoon.
Although the Pound strengthened versus many of its peers after Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Martin Weale suggested the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would hike the lending rate in 2015, the gains were relatively short-lived after Wednesday’s solitary British data publication failed to meet with expectations.

The Indian Rupee, meanwhile, edged higher versus its major peers after US Gasoline Inventories advanced beyond expectations in the week ending June 12th, causing crude oil prices to drop. However, the gains were held back thanks to speculation that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will cut the cash rate during the next policy meeting.

The Pound Sterling to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rate is currently trending in the region of 99.9810.

FX News Now: Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rate Forecast to Hold Steady against the Indian Rupee (INR) as Lower-than-Forecast Mortgage Approvals Stymie Gains

The Pound rallied versus many of its major peers after BoE policymaker Martin Weale suggested that he would vote for a rate hike within the next few policy meetings. Weale stated that the pickup in the British labour market, with particular reference to accelerate wage growth, should be met with a fractional benchmark rate increase.

‘If you'd asked me last autumn how rapidly I thought wages might pick up, looking at the most recent numbers, the movement seems to have been a bit faster than that,’ he said. ‘Rather than ... fizzling out, the labour market ... is fizzing away nicely,’ he added.

However, the uptrend initiated by the hawkish policymaker was short-lived after British data failed to impress. BBA loans for House Purchase reached a 14-month high of 42,530 approvals in May. However, this was below expectations of 43,350 mortgage approvals.

The Pound Sterling to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rate dropped to a low of 99.8920 today.

Indian Rupee (INR) Exchange Rate Forecast to Trend within Tight Range against the British Pound (GBP), US Dollar (USD) as Lower Oil Prices were Offset by RBI Rate Hike Speculation

Although crude oil prices fell after US inventories data showed an unexpected growth in supply, the Rupee was little affected as prices remained resiliently above $60 a barrel. Should prices begin to tumble, however, the Rupee is likely to gain thanks to cheaper imports.

Weighing of demand for the Indian asset was news from the Reserve Bank of India that many policymakers voted for a larger interest rate cut than the recent drop by 25 basis points. This fuelled speculation that policymakers will vote for further policy easing during the next policy meeting.

‘Continuing weak non-food bank credit growth might slow down the pace of the turn-around in GDP growth... Members felt that more monetary accommodation would support the growth process at this juncture,’ said the RBI.

Today's Currency Predictions: Pound Sterling to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) Exchange Rate Forecast to Edge Lower on Crude Prices

Although there is a lack of domestic data to curb the trend, the Pound Sterling to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rate has the potential to soften during the North American session if oil prices continue to trend lower. Thursday will see the Rupee subject to oil price fluctuations and wider market movement thanks to a complete absence of domestic data to drive changes. The Pound, meanwhile, could see volatility from CBI Reported Sales data, although the publication doesn’t hold much weight economically.

The Pound Sterling to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rate climbed to a high of 100.9100 during Wednesday’s European session.
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TAGS: Dollar Pound Forecasts Indian Rupee Forecasts Pound Sterling Forecasts

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