Pound to Dollar Forecast: "Focus Shift to 1.3465" says Bank

July 13, 2025 - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: "Focus Shift to 1.3465" says Bank

The US Dollar held firm in global markets and the Pound Sterling dipped after the latest GDP data with the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate sliding to fresh 2-week lows below 1.3520.

According to UoB; “Looking ahead, should GBP break clearly below 1.3510, the focus will shift to 1.3465.”

Scotiabank added; “the multi-month bull trend is being threatened as GBPUSD approaches critical medium-term support at the 50 day MA (1.3497).

A break lower would risk a slide to at least 1.3400.

Earlier, the Pound was undermined by the latest GDP data with a 0.1% contraction for May after a 0.3% decline for April.

Scotiabank commented that GBP/USD is; “trading heavily in response to the release of weaker than expected data including an unexpected contraction in monthly GDP, a worrisome decline in industrial production, and a wider than expected trade deficit.”

ING commented; "Though it would be wrong to conclude from the GDP data alone that the economy is coming under greater pressure, there are genuine questions emanating from the jobs market and whether it is beginning to fall apart more quickly.”


The data has reinforced very strong expectations that there will be an August Bank of England rate cut and increased speculation over a faster pace of cuts.

Overnight, President Trump announced that Canadian exports to the US will be subjected to a 35% tariff from August 1st. This followed the announcement the previous day of a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods.

There has been a negative impact on risk appetite with equities surrendering recent gains.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore commented; "The tariff headlines so far have been largely ignored, but Canada's - It's something which I don't think the market was braced for."

He added; “It's obviously not the end of the week we wanted to see, so you'd expect to see risk assets fall because there is a risk of escalation from several parties."

The Pound tends to be more vulnerable in global markets when risk conditions deteriorate.

There is, however, a high degree of uncertainty over the dollar reaction.


Traditionally, the dollar tends to benefit from vulnerable risk conditions, but the currency posted sharp losses after Trump announced the reciprocal tariffs in April.

Markets also consider that the threats are a negotiating tactic with the potential for deals ahead of the August 1st deadline.

Ray Attrill, head of FX research at National Australia Bank commented; "For the moment, I think the uncertainty is just playing to a little bit of U.S. dollar stability, and I wouldn't be too surprised if that holds for another couple of weeks."

Interest rate expectations will also be a key element for the US dollar, especially as the current yield structure is still positive for the US currency.

A minority of Fed members consider that there is the possibility of a July cut, but the majority are not convinced, especially with inflation uncertainty.

ING considers that next week’s inflation data will be crucial for interest rate expectations and the consensus forecast is for an increase in June core prices of 0.3%.

ING commented; “If it weren’t for the explicit dovishness from Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, and Trump’s persistent pressure on the Fed, a print like that would probably be enough to rule out a September cut. As things stand, it may take a 0.4% print for markets to fully price that out.”

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John's new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way, ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Currency Predictions Pound Dollar Forecasts