Spike Possible for Pound Sterling vs AUD NZD CAD on Black Swan Event Forecast

Published: Friday, 16 October 2015 16:00 BST - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Spike Possible for Pound Sterling vs AUD NZD CAD on Black Swan Event Forecast

US Data Impacts US Dollar Conversion Rate Trading Today. FX News

The main intrigue in the global currency markets this afternoon has come in the form of more data from the US. The September version of the closely-monitored Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data came out much as per analysts’ expectations, however the latest figures revealed an upward revision to August’s counterpart figures to -0.1% and -0.4% respectively.

US Interest Rate Hike Expectations Improve, Support USD to GBP, EUR

The adjustment raised the possibility that the recent soft data across the US economy may have been overly-pessimistic; September’s American jobs numbers were particularly weak, with the job creation numbers missing expectations to the downside by a significant amount. The Greenback remained under pressure in spite of the mildly encouraging data and the Pound Sterling US Dollar exchange rate continues to loiter at close to the 1.5500 GBP USD threshold as we head towards the weekend market shutdown.

EURO ALERT: EUR Static as CPI Data Confirms Weak Inflation Data

Earlier in the day, the latest Eurozone inflation numbers confirmed that prices have continued to fall for another month in the euroland. The news maintained the selling pressure on the euro (currency : EUR), which was already under pressure following mid-week comments from European Central Bank policymaker Ewald Nowotny which suggested that he believes that further monetary easing from the euro area’s reserve bank is now inevitable. The Pound Sterling euro exchange rate climbed to as high as 1.3626 GBP EUR in response to the release – as recently as the middle part of Tuesday’s session, the pair had been languishing at an 8-month low of 1.3346 as investors priced in another bout of UK deflation.

AUD, NZD, CAD Exchange Rate Outlook and Market Forecast

Elsewhere, global equities markets have continued to recover from the near-term lows which they plumbed on Black Monday – August 24th. As a group, the Commodity Dollars (AUD, NZD, CAD), have recovered in step with share markets, however, many investors believe that this near-term improvement could halt at a moment’s notice. Statistics show that investors believe that there is a heightened chance of a ‘Black Swan Event’ – (an as yet unforeseen occurrence which causes a major shift out of risk) – than at almost any stage in recent years. This situation has lead FX insiders to forecast that the Pound Sterling (currency : GBP) could post strong gains against the Commodity Dollars at a moment’s notice.

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