Weekly Forecast Data Highlights for Global FX Markets

November 23, 2015 - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Weekly Forecast Data Highlights for Global FX Markets

Futures Traders see 73.6% Chance of a December Federal Reserve interest rate hike

The US provides the lion’s share of this week’s data highlights in the global currency markets, with tomorrow’s session being particularly stacked with tier one releases.

Global FX traders are already on edge, given last week’s heavy hints from the US Federal Reserve that next month’s meeting may bring the announcement of interest rate ‘lift-off’.

Futures markets were pricing-in a 73.6% chance that US policymakers will vote for a December increase during the final stretch of last week’s session; however, if this is set to become a fully factored-in certainty, then this week’s US data will have to please.

US Dollar to Surge if Third-Quarter Gross Domestic Product Surprises to the Upside

If the cost of borrowing Stateside is indeed set to rise for the first time since the 2007-09 global financial crisis, then tomorrow afternoon’s US Q3 Gross Domestic Product data will have to show an improvement on Q2’s counterpart year-on-year result of 1.5%.

Analysts forecast that the keynote statistic will show at 1.9% - a print of anywhere Northwards of this will cause speculators to up their bets on a rate hike and the US Dollar (currency : USD) will benefit as a consequence.

US Consumption Data and UK GDP to Provoke GBP to USD Exchange Rate Volatilty

Almost as important, and published at the same time, (1330hrs GMT tomorrow), is the latest US consumption data.

Again, analyst forecast that the statistic will reveal a healthy uptick in spending levels from American economic participants, with such an outcome expected to favour the Buck.

If November’s US Consumer Confidence figure, out 90 mins later, also shows a good improvement on the previous edition, then futures markets may be pricing-in a near 100% chance of a Fed hike by close of business tomorrow.

Meanwhile, Sterling-watchers will have to wait until the final session of this week for the sole tier one UK data release.

If the provisional Q3 UK Gross Domestic Product shows at below Q2’s annualised print of 2.3%, then expect the Pound Sterling (currency : GBP) to incur sustained losses.

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TAGS: American Dollar Forecasts Pound Dollar Forecasts Pound Sterling Forecasts