Weekly British Pound, Euro and US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecasts

Modified: Monday, 22 August 2016 08:58 BST - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Weekly British Pound, Euro and US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecasts

Pound to Dollar Exchange Rate Expected to be Range-Bound this Week

• The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate: 1 GBP = 1.71896 AUD.
• The Pound to Euro exchange rate: +0.29% higher today at 1 GBP = 1.15955 EUR.
• The Pound to Dollar exchange rate: +0.13 per cent higher at 1 GBP = 1.30788

Foreign exchange investors will have to wait until the very end of this week for the data releases that matter for the GBP/USD.

The back-loaded data schedule means that the pound to dollar rate is expected to continue to range-trade during the first three sessions of this week.

Our leading data analysts considers the likely upshot of Thursday and Friday’s tier one economic stats on the pair below …

Positive Durable Goods Orders Could Send US Dollar (USD) Exchange Rates Higher this Week

Analysts always pay close attention to the monthly US Durable Goods Orders data for a steer on the state of the world’s premier economy.

Thursday brings the publication of this month’s edition and a significant improvement on last month’s dire showing of -3.9% is anticipated.


The closely-monitored release, which gives an indication of the value of orders for goods expected to last at least two years by US economic participants, is expected to show at 3.4%.

Such a result will stoke analysts’ forecast regarding the likelihood of a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike before the end of the year.

At the time of writing, the money markets are pricing-in a 46.5% implied percentage probably that the cost of borrowing Stateside will still be at its current level come Christmas.

However, the Durable Goods Orders data could change all this. Friday’s US Gross Domestic Product figures will also inform investors on the most likely policy path from the Fed.

A showing of above the anticipated annualised print of 1.1% to support the Buck and send Sterling Dollar down into the 1.2000s once more.

Will Q2 UK GDP Data Lend Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rates Support?

Meanwhile, Friday morning brings the release of Q2 GDP data from the British economy; the official figures will provide hard evidence of the effects which the uncertainty engendered by June’s European Union In / Out referendum has had on the domestic financial system.

A significant drop-off from Q1’s year-on-year result of 2.2% will be needed to improve Sterling’s forecast.

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