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Pound Sterling to Turkish Lira (GBP/TRY) Exchange Rate Up 3.4% despite Brexit Handicap

August 9, 2018 - Written by Frank Davies

Wednesday’s trading session saw the Pound to Turkish Lira (GBP/TRY) exchange rate open in the region of 6.8206 and close higher at a level of 6.8410.

The Pound has struggled against most other currency peers this week, so yesterday’s GBP/TRY exchange rate rise was mainly down to the Lira being the weaker currency.

On the UK side of proceedings, Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon warned that there could be dire consequences to the UK ending up with no Brexit deal.

In something of a recurring theme, Mrs Sturgeon’s warning echoed similar recent sentiments from parties such as the National Farmers Union (NFU) and Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney.

Prime Minister Theresa May attempted to defend the ongoing Brexit process, saying:

‘What I want to see is as we sit and negotiate that deal with the EU, I think it’s incumbent on the Scottish government to support the proposals, to be speaking up for those proposals in Europe, rather than sowing the politics of division.’

Daily GBP/TRY News: Pound Sterling Rises 3.4% against Turkish Lira despite Brexit Fears

The Pound (GBP) has risen by a phenomenal 3.4% against the Turkish Lira (TRY) today, although other GBP exchange rate movement has been more volatile by comparison.

The Pound’s spectacular advance in the GBP/TRY pairing is mainly down to the Lira being heavily devalued – GBP traders are still concerned about a possible no-deal Brexit occurring.

Despite the lack of solid support for the Pound during the week so far, it’s possible that a small part of today’s GBP/TRY appreciation is because of Pound trader hopes for positive UK GDP stats on Friday.

Turkish Lira to Pound (TRY/GBP) Exchange Rate Tumbles as US-Turkey Feud Worsens

Signs of a worsening relationship between Turkey and the United States have drained TRY trader confidence today, causing the Lira to Pound (TRY/GBP) exchange rate to fall to an all-time low.

The latest deterioration in international relations came on Wednesday, when it was reported that US and Turkish officials had failed to resolve the case of a US pastor held in Turkey.

The case of Andrew Brunson made international headlines last week, when the US imposed sanctions on Turkish ministers and threatened greater penalties if Mr Brunson was not released.

While the two sides are currently at an impasse, the Lira’s sharp devaluation today shows that TRY traders are worried about a potential worsening of an already bad situation in the future.

Predicting just such a scenario, Foreign Policy Interrupted CEO Elmira Bayrasli says:

‘With [Turkish] President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s troubling consolidation of power in the past year, the spat over Brunson is likely only the beginning of a series of conflicts, in which the United States will have little leverage or bargaining power.’

Pound Sterling to Turkish Lira (GBP/TRY) Exchange Rate Forecast: Are Greater Gains ahead on UK GDP Data?

The Pound’s (GBP) favourable performance against the Lira (TRY) today could improve further on Friday, when potentially supportive UK GDP stats will be released.

Preliminary estimates for the Q2 2018 GDP readings are expected to rise from 0.2% to 0.4% on the quarter and from 1.2% to 1.3% on the year; such results could push the GBP/TRY exchange rate higher.

Another source of support for the Pound may be the preliminary UK Q2 business investment reading, which is expected to shift from -0.4% to 0.3%.

On the other side of the currency pairing, the next Turkish data to watch out for isn’t due until Wednesday next week.

Expectations are for the unemployment rate in May to reduce from 9.6% to 9.5%; such a result might restore Lira trader confidence and cause a brief TRY/GBP exchange rate rise.
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