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GBP TRY Forecast: Pound Turkish Lira Exchange Rate Predicted To Climb

May 1, 2014 - Written by Minesh Chaudhari

Investors hoping for an improvement in the relative value of the Turkish Lira were dealt a blow yesterday with an unexpected missive from Turkey’s central bank which is forecast to send the Pound Lira exchange rate higher GBP/TRY. Meanwhile, the Pound Swiss Franc exchange rate is drifting lower on Ukraine concerns GBP/CHF.

The current Turkish Lira exchange rates are as follows:
- The Pound Sterling to Turkish Lira exchange rate is trading down -0.03% at 3.56359 GBP/TRY.
- The Euro to Turkish Lira exchange rate is trading down -0.12% at 2.92596 EUR/TRY.
- The US Dollar to Turkish Lira exchange rate is trading down -0.24% at 2.10722 USD/TRY.

The Pound Turkish Lira exchange rate edged slightly higher during yesterday’s trading session, touching 3.5795 GBP/TRY during the middle part of the day. The Turkish tender has suffered a torrid few months against the other sixteen most-actively traded global currencies following a pronounced move out of TRY-denominated assets by institutional investors. January proved to be a real nadir for the Lira prompting a confirmation from Turkey’s central bank that it would intervene in the currency markets to prop-up the TRY by selling US Dollar-denominated assets. The move which followed saw the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) dump a massive US$3bn worth of holdings on the market to support the TRY.

However, the Lira has enjoyed a renewed bout of support during recent sessions with leading analysts suggesting that the rate of domestic price rises may be about to peak and with domestic trade figures showing a pronounced improvement. Yesterday’s session saw the slight amelioration in sentiment towards the Lira placed in jeopardy following comments from the Governor of the CBRT, Erdem Basci, suggesting that an interest rate cut may be on the cards from his Bank due to the improving inflation outlook. The top man at Turkey’s central bank observed that the CBRT’s next move could be, ‘measured rate cuts, but we would keep a tight monetary policy stance’. Given these words, a renewed move towards the 3.7000 threshold remains a distinct possibility for the Pound Lira Exchange Rate (GBP/TRY).

Elsewhere, the Swiss Franc has come in for some safe haven support during recent sessions, sending the Pound Franc exchange rate down into the low 1.4800s yesterday. The shift into Franc-denominated assets has been driven by investors’ concerns regarding a potential civil war on the eastern edge of the eurozone, as tensions between Moscow and Ukraine escalate. Look for GBP CHF to edge lower if these fears persist.

To read further exchange rate forecasts or to compare exchange rates for an international money transfer, please refer to the main Currency News UK website.

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