Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR Dip Buying, as "Deterioration of US Data Likely"

April 15, 2025 - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR Dip Buying, as "Deterioration of US Data Likely"

The Euro corrected weaker on Tuesday while the US Dollar struggled to secure more than a slight rebound from 3-year lows posted last week.

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate retreated to just below 1.1300.

ING commented; “we have observed strong buying interest around 1.1300, and we still think the near-term bias is towards 1.15 rather than 1.12.”

According to Scotiabank; “The charts suggest the DXY is consolidating recent losses via a minor triangle on the intraday chart), possibly ahead of further losses.”

With equities and bonds settling down, markets will be looking very closely at incoming US economic data.

The headline New York Empire business confidence improved to -8.1 from -20.0 the previous month and compared with consensus forecasts of -13.

The outlook index, however, dipped to -7.4 from 12.7 previously. This was the second-lowest reading since 2004 and this component has registered a 44-point decline over the past three months.


All future indicators of activity dipped sharply on the month, with a sharp retreat in the new orders index, but companies expect upward pressure on prices.

According to the survey; “Firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey.”

Commerzbank strategist Antje Praefcke commented; "With every U-turn in his 'dealmaking', the U.S. president destroys further planning security and even more trust, which is why I ultimately do not expect any significant recovery in the U.S. dollar as long as this uncertainty persists."

ING expects Euro buying on dips; “the option market is sending clear signals that markets remain heavily bearish on the dollar, and price action on Monday suggests investors are still minded to sell USD in the rallies. The rationale here is that even if we have seen the worst in US market dysfunctionality, a deterioration of US data is likely on the way, and the damage dealt by “chaotic” trade policy decisions won’t be unwound quickly.”

The German ZEW investor confidence index declined very sharply to -14.0 for April from 51.6 the previous month and well below expectations of 10.5.

There was, however, a small net gain for the current conditions component to -81.2 from -87.6 previously.

ZEW President Achim Wambach commented; “The erratic changes in the US trade policy are weighing heavily on expectations in Germany, which have sharply declined. It is not only the consequences the announced reciprocal tariffs may have on global trade, but also the dynamics of their changes, that have massively increased global uncertainty.”


There are strong expectations that the ECB will cut interest rates by a further 25 basis points on Thursday with the deposit rate lowered to 2.25%.

Dovish Fed commentary limited the scope for a dollar recovery.

In comments on Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that the Trump administration's tariff policies are a major shock to the U.S. economy which could lead the Fed to cut interest rates to head off a recession even if inflation remains high.

Scotiabank’s chief FX strategist Shaun Osborne commented; “Market volatility and the practical considerations around demands to reshore manufacturing quickly may be having a constraining effect on the broader roll out of tariffs.

He did, however, add; “Still, the president did promise tariffs on pharma were coming in the near future as the US launches investigations into drugs and semiconductor imports and China today ordered a halt to Boeing plane deliveries.”

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TAGS: Currency Predictions Euro Dollar Forecasts