Euro to Dollar Forecasts Revised to 1.15 (from 1.04) at HSBC

April 30, 2025 - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecasts Revised to 1.15 (from 1.04) at HSBC

After surging to 3-year highs above 1.1550, the Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) has been in corrective mode with buying below 1.1300.

US economic concerns have increased, although the dollar has demonstrated some resilience in global markets. There will be some impact from month-end trading during the day which may mask underlying trends.

Scotiabank commented; “The latest period of consolidation has not yet violated the bullish trend, as this would require a break below the mid-1.12s. The softening RSI is worrisome however, and hints at waning momentum. Near-term support is expected around 1.1300 and near-term resistance is expected above 1.1500.”

HSBC has revised its end-2025 EUR/USD forecast to 1.15 from 1.04 previously.

According to the bank; “cyclical, political and structural debates prompting us to abandon our dollar bullish journey. New FX forecasts entail a weaker USD; it will take time before we want to get back on board.”

According to ING; “While the data flow should continue to prove a net-negative, markets are clearly welcoming Trump’s efforts to ease some tariff pain. We still believe that a constant flow of constructive news on trade (especially regarding China) is needed to keep equities and the dollar supported, but for now, it might be enough to let the dollar stabilise into Friday’s payrolls.”

MUFG expects the Wall Street performance will be important with sharp US losses on Wednesday; “the price action in equities indicates recession is not anticipated and if the data points in that direction, which we believe is likely, then equities are unlikely to hold these levels.”


It added; “Renewed risk-off in equities combined with falling front-end yields as Fed rate cuts become more likely will only reinforce the downside momentum for the dollar.”

The latest ADP data reported an increase in private payrolls of 62,000 for April compared with consensus forecasts of around 115,000 while the March increase was revised slightly lower to 147,000 from the flash reading of 155,000.

ADP chief economist Dr. Nela Richardson commented; "Unease is the word of the day. Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data. It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment."

MUFG commented; “There is compelling evidence now that the US labour market is set to deteriorate although whether that will be evident as soon as in the NFP data for April to be released on Friday is less clear.”

US GDP for the first quarter of 2025 was estimated at an annualised -0.3% compared with the previous figure of 2.4%.

Consumer spending was positive at 1.8% from 4.0% previously while investment posted a significant gain.

There was, however, a surge in imports ahead of the imposition of tariffs and this was the key element pushing the economy into contraction territory while government spending also edged lower.


ING commented; “We suspect personal spending figures may not look that grim, and that the dollar can show some resilience to a negative GDP print today.”

According to Scotiabank the overall dollar performance has been disappointing; “The USD has not benefited in an obvious way from anticipated month-end flows which may be another sign of trouble if that absence of demand reflects foreign investors choosing not to adjust hedges after the past month’s swings in US asset markets where US fixed income especially has underperformed.”

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TAGS: Currency Predictions Euro Dollar Forecasts