Euro to US Dollar Forecast: EUR Targets 1.15 as USD Bears Wait

June 11, 2025 - Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Euro to US Dollar Forecast: EUR Targets 1.15 as USD Bears Wait

Overall market volatility has eased with tighter ranges, but markets remain very wary that underlying tensions could quickly flare up and trigger a fresh round of turbulence.

Trade negotiations will continue while there is another important US Treasury bond auction later in the day following the latest inflation data.

Markets are also continuing to monitor political developments including the US Administration’s reaction to the Los Angeles protests and potential threats to Federal Reserve independence.

According to IG Index; “now people are just trying to work out whether they're going to buy or sell the U.S. dollar and that's I think reflecting a bit of that indecision.”

UoB commented; “EUR/USD appears to have entered a range trading phase, likely between 1.1330 and 1.1495.

According to ING; EUR/USD’s direction today will be mostly set by the dollar, with some support likely near 1.1400 and a possible push above 1.1500 by the week’s end.”

Overnight, there were reports that negotiators have agreed on a “framework” to restart the flow of sensitive goods, including rare earths, pending approval from President Trump and Chinese President Xi.


MUFG commented; “There was no plan for the leaders to talk and nothing on a new round of negotiations beyond discussions over the coming days to ensure the details of this agreement are implemented.”

According to ING; “From a market sentiment standpoint, this feels like a positive step toward de-escalation, but not a major breakthrough. China’s refusal to commit to reducing its trade deficit still leaves plenty of ammo for trade hawks in Washington to resist any structural easing.”

Elsewhere on the trade front, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit stated that it would extend the stay on reciprocal tariffs until the case is heard on 31st July.

The current 90-day delay is due to end on July 9th and there is, therefore, the possibility that aggressive tariffs will be put in place, especially against the EU.

MUFG commented; “the Trump administration would have resulted in an appeal to the Supreme Court and hence the timing of the full final outcome to this question of legality was always likely to go beyond July-August.”

Elsewhere, there has been speculation that current Treasury Secretary Bessent is being considered as a potential candidate to be the next Federal Reserve Chair.

There will be concerns that Bessent would be too close to the Administration.


ING commented; “The dollar strongly dislikes any threats to Fed independence. Add in that Bessent is likely to favour much lower rates (echoing Trump’s rhetoric), and the greenback faces mostly downside risks from this story.”

The US will also release the latest consumer prices data on Wednesday with expectations that the headline rate will increase to 2.5% from 2.3%. Core prices are expected to increase 0.3% on the month with a 2.9% annual rate from 2.8%.

ING expects a slightly softer set of data which would tend to reinforce speculation over an earlier cut in interest rates and undermine the dollar.

Danske Bank sees the potential for dollar gains in the near term, especially if there is an easing of trade tensions.

Nevertheless, it added; “we continue to see USD strength as an opportunity to fade, given ongoing medium- to longer-term macro and policy headwinds. These are likely to sustain the negative risk premium embedded in the USD post-Liberation Day. We maintain a 12M EUR/USD target of 1.20.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts