Pound to Dollar Near-Term Forecast: "Range of 1.3670/1.3750"

June 30, 2025 - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Near-Term Forecast: "Range of 1.3670/1.3750"

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is trading close to 1.3700 and consolidating below the 44-month highs above 1.3750 posted last week.

In the very short term, there will be month-end position adjustment as funds take stock after a dramatic first half of the year with President Trump’s rhetoric watched very closely.

According to UoB; “The price action still appears to be part of a sideways trading phase. Today, we expect GBP to trade in a range of 1.3670/1.3750.”

From a slightly longer-term perspective, Scotiabank added; “the chart offers little major resistance ahead of the psychologically important 1.40 level.”

Assuming Middle East tensions remain contained, markets are facing a packed US agenda this week while, domestically, political developments will tend to dominate.

As far as US economic policy is concerned, markets will be monitoring progress of the ‘big beautiful’ budget bill through the Senate with Trump demanding approval this week.

Trade talks will also be continuing ahead of next week’s theoretical deadline to reach deals.


During the week, there are also key jobs-related releases culminating in the Thursday employment report. The US will also be on holiday on Friday which will trigger further position adjustment.

President Trump continued his campaign against the Federal Reserve over the weekend with Chair Powell again the target of his attacks.

According to Trump; “I'd love him to resign if he wanted to, he's done a lousy job." He also stated that Powell was stupid.

Trump again called for dramatic rate cuts; "I think we should be paying 1% right now, and we're paying more because we have a guy who suffers from, I think, Trump Derangement Syndrome."

There will be further speculation that Trump will manage to push Powell out or nominate his successor early and attempt to influence policy.

Rabobank commented; “announcing a successor now would effectively allow Trump to armchair quarterback monetary policy decisions as Trump himself has said that he won’t appoint anyone who isn’t totally onboard with cutting the Fed Funds rate. For a President who revels in slaying the sacred cows of neoliberal economics, central bank independence looks like an easy target.”

It added; “With an economy starting to slide and financing pressures everywhere you look, it’s really no wonder that Trump is so keen to bring interest rates under executive control.”


Marekts are now pricing in over a 90% chance of a September rate cut with just over a 20% chance of a July cut.

The Federal Reserve is still wary over inflation developments.

ING commented; “We think we are in a very different jobs and wages environment to 2021/2022 and that inflation will be short-lived. However, the Fed will be wary given the stinging criticism it faced after saying 2021 inflation would be “transitory” when it turned out to be much more persistent. As such we think the Fed will be on hold until at least September, but the likelihood of meaningful rate cuts is growing.”

The US-UK trade agreement has come into effect on June 30th. The tariffs on UK car exports to the US will be lowered to 10% from 27.5% and the tariffs on the aerospace sector will also be removed.

This puts the UK on a better footing, although still worse than the tariff regime before April, especially as the 25% tariffs on aluminium remain in place at this stage.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts