Pound-to-Dollar Technical Forecast: "Significant Resistance" at 1.3570

Modified: Saturday, 24 January 2026 18:01 BST - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound-to-Dollar Technical Forecast: "Significant Resistance" at 1.3570

Pound Sterling has secured net support from better than expected UK data, dampening talk of further Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts, while the dollar has lost further ground in global markets.

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has posted strong gains to a 2-week high of 1.3530. There is important resistance around 1.3570 seen in the first week of January.

UoB commented; “While the price action suggests the risk for GBP remains on the upside, it is unclear for now whether upward momentum is strong enough to break above the significant resistance at 1.3570.”

The UK PMIbusiness confidence manufacturing index strengthened to a 17-month high of 51.6 for January from 50.6 the previous month and above consensus forecasts of no change.

The services-sector index posted a strong advance to a 21-month high of 54.3 from 51.4 and above expectations of 51.7. The overall composite output index also hit a 21-month high.

Business confidence strengthened, but there was a further notable decline in employment.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence commented; “UK businesses kicked up a gear in January, showing encouraging resilience in the face of recent geopolitical tensions. Companies are reporting higher demand, both from home and export markets, which has driven output growth to the fastest since April 2024. Firms are also reporting the greatest optimism about the business outlook since before the 2024 Autumn Budget.”

There was further strong upward pressure on costs and the seasonally adjusted index signalled the fastest increase in average prices charged by private sector firms since August 2025.

Williamson added; "High staffing costs were meanwhile again widely reported as a key cause of higher selling prices, hinting at an intensification of price pressures at a level above the Bank of England target.”

In response, markets now see scope for only one BoE rate cut this year.

Earlier, the ONS reported a 0.4% increase in retail sales for December after a 0.1% decline the previous month and compared with consensus forecasts of no change.

There has been limited market reaction to the news that Greater Manchester mayor Burnham could have an opportunity to run for the House of Commons through a local by-election.

MUFG did voice some caution; “The price action does highlight though that the May local elections could trigger a pound sell-off if a leadership change emerges.”

The dollar has lost ground in markets amid on-going concerns surrounding US policymaking.

Macquarie Group global FX & rates strategist Thierry Wizman commented; “while a Greenland deal solves the immediate problem of tariffs and invasion, it doesn't solve the core issue of the seeming alienation of allies from one another.

He added; "And that's not a good place to be if you want to preserve the USD's reserve-currency status."

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John's new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way, ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts