GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pares Gains as US Jobless Claims Bolster Dollar

July 10, 2025 - Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pares Gains as US Jobless Claims Bolster Dollar

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate was trapped in a narrow range despite Thursday’s upbeat market mood.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately 1.35654, showing losses of 0.24%.

Before the US jobless claims data release, the US Dollar (USD) had faced headwinds on Thursday, weakening against a number of its major peers as multiple factors weighed on the currency.

Improved market sentiment following President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcements saw investors pivot away from the safe-haven ‘Greenback’. This risk-on mood limited USD demand through much of the European session.

Adding further pressure, the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes, published on Wednesday evening, signalled a more dovish tone.

Several policymakers indicated a willingness to consider cutting interest rates in July, depending on how upcoming data unfolds.

This shift in Fed rhetoric dragged on the Dollar, with traders increasingly pricing in potential policy easing.


Looking ahead, the US’s latest initial jobless claims could add to the pressure. Any uptick in filings may reinforce expectations of a rate cut and further undermine USD appeal.

The Pound (GBP) traded sideways on Thursday, lacking the momentum to stage any significant moves amid a continued dearth of UK economic data.

As markets maintained a broadly optimistic tone, Sterling slipped against higher-risk currencies that tend to outperform in buoyant conditions.

At the same time, the Pound’s increasing sensitivity to risk allowed it to hold firm against its safe-haven rivals like the US Dollar.

With no fresh UK data to offer direction, GBP remained stuck within a narrow trading range, drifting in line with broader market sentiment throughout the session.

Looking ahead to Friday’s European session, the spotlight will fall on the UK’s latest GDP figures for May, which are expected to show a modest rebound.

Forecasts point to a rise in monthly growth from -0.3% to 0.1%.


If the data confirms an economic recovery, it could lend the Pound some support, potentially allowing GBP/USD to edge higher and end the week on a stronger note.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar looks set to remain at the mercy of broader market sentiment, with no notable US data due for release on Friday.

If investor confidence fades heading into the weekend, safe-haven demand could offer the ‘Greenback’ a lift.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts