Pound to Dollar Forecast: "GBP’s Medium-term Trend Remains Bullish"

July 11, 2025 - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: "GBP’s Medium-term Trend Remains Bullish"

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate avoided a further test of support below 1.3550 on Wednesday, but failed to hold the 1.3600 level on Thursday and was held near 1.3580.

On a short-term view, UoB commented; “Momentum indicators are still mostly flat, and we continue to expect sideways trading. Expected range for today: 1.3570/1.3635.”

According to Scotiabank; “the GBP’s medium-term trend remains bullish but the latest consolidation has robbed it of momentum.”

It added; “we see the near-term range bound between 1.3520 support and 1.3680 resistance.”

On a longer-term view, UoB sees significant downward risks; “There is scope for the pullback in GBP/USD to test the major support zone between 1.3295 and 1.3335.”

The UK FTSE 100 index hit a record high on Thursday amid increased confidence that the global economy will be able to adapt to higher tariffs.

Firmer risk conditions helped underpin the Pound in global markets, but there were no fundamentals developments to trigger net Sterling buying and there was no evidence that a majority of Fed officials are adopting a more dovish stance.


The next UK data test on Friday is the latest GDP release. Consensus forecasts are for 0.1% growth after April’s 0.3% decline.

Scotiabank noted; “BoE commentary remains decidedly dovish, and markets are paying attention as they price 22bpts of easing for the next meeting and just over 50bpts of cumulative easing by December.”

The Federal Reserve minutes from June’s meeting were released overnight. Two members considered that there was scope to cut interest rates at the July meeting, but the majority were still concerned over potential inflation pressures and would not back a near-term move.

ING commented; “June meeting minutes released yesterday confirmed that the cautious/hawkish front remains dominant in the FOMC, with only Waller and Bowman having explicitly moved to the dovish side.”

Markets consider that there is only around a 6% chance of a July cut. There is, however, a notable risk that Waller and Bowman will dissent against that decision.

Standard Chartered commented; “There have not been dissents by two Governors at a single meeting since 1993.”

According to the bank; “The bottom line is that July may be less boring than the market currently expects – not because a shock rate decision is likely, but because any change in Powell’s ability to build consensus within the FOMC would be a major surprise.”


It added; “We (and the market) expect a dovish hold in July, with Fed Chair Powell hinting at a September cut.”

According to MUFG; “Overall, the minutes continued to signal that “most” participants expected it likely would be appropriate to cut rates this year but they are waiting for more data to provide clarity over the impact of tariffs.”

Markets are continuing to debate the longer-term outlook for Federal Reserve policy, especially given underlying pressure form the Administration for the central bank to cut interest rates aggressively.

There has been further speculation that Trump will appoint White House Economic advisor Hassett as the next Fed Chair.

MUFG commented; “Recently he has stated that there is “no reason for the Fed to not cut rates now” and would be viewed as more of a “yes” man for President Trump who would be willing to implement lower rates. A development that could increase downside risks for the US dollar in the year ahead.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts