Euro to Dollar Forecast: "Resistance is at 1.1700, Followed by 1.1720"

July 15, 2025 - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: "Resistance is at 1.1700, Followed by 1.1720"

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate dipped to near 1.1650 on US-EU trade headlines before a recovery to the 1.1680 area and trading below 1.1700.

A key debate will be whether damage to the EU or US will be greater.

UoB commented; “EUR does not appear to have enough momentum to reach the major support at 1.1625. Resistance is at 1.1700, followed by 1.1720.”

Scotiabank does not see a major shift at this stage; “we look to near-term support closer to the lower 1.16s. We see near-term resistance in the mid-1.17s.”

According to ING; “A close under, say, 1.1650 in EUR/USD today could clear a path for a correction to the 1.1450/1500 area, which is our slight preference for this quarter.”

Over the weekend, President Trump stated that tariffs of 30% would be imposed on EU exports to the US from August 1st.

There has been an element of unease, but no serious deterioration in risk conditions. Tariffs at that level would, however, cause major damage to the EU economy.


The EU has been preparing a series of counter measures against the US if there is no deal, but stated that any retaliation will be delayed until August 1st.

Traders are optimistic that some form of deal will be reached.

MUFG commented; “Market participants are likely to remain optimistic that that a deal between the EU and US can be reached by 1st August helping to dampen downside risks for the euro and other European currencies.”

Jefferies’ Mohit Kumar added; “We see the 30% tariffs announcement as an opening move and eventual tariffs are likely to set lower in the 10-15% range. The announcement of higher tariffs is a negotiation tactic which should encourage EU and other countries to make a deal quickly.”

He still expressed some caution; “However, the recent tariff announcements over last week also highlight the uncertainty around tariffs and that uncertainty has probably moved up a notch.”

Pepperstone market analyst Michael Brown commented; "There do appear to be some tariff jitters creeping in once again after Trump floating the blanket tariffs yesterday."

He expects gradual medium-term depreciation, but added; “we have clearly already fallen a long way, in a short space of time, so there is scope for a bit of a rebound, especially if some of the more recent USD shorts begin to get squeezed."


Deutsche Bank economist and strategist Henry Allen noted the risk of higher volatility and risk of complacency; “Last year, the late-July/early August period set the stage for the worst market turmoil of 2024. This year, that week looks seriously problematic again from a market perspective.”

According to Allen; “First, there’s the new August 1 tariff deadline. Markets are clearly not pricing in these higher tariffs, and we may only know the outcome in the final hours, offering the potential for a sharp market reaction and heightened volatility.”

US monetary policy will also be a key element. At this stage, traders are pricing in around a 60% chance that interest rates will be cut in September.

President Trump has continued to push very aggressively for Fed Chair Powell to resign.

According to MUFG, there is no scope for complacency; “The lack of negative US dollar reaction highlights that market participants are not expecting the talk to lead to the immediate removal of Powell as Fed Chair but it remains a significant downside risk for the US dollar that needs to monitored going forward.”

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John's new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way, ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts