Euro to Pound Sterling Forecast: Possible "Break Through 0.8670"

July 15, 2025 - Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Euro to Pound Sterling Forecast: Possible "Break Through 0.8670"

Foreign exchange analysts warn that this week’s data could drive further gains in the Euro to Pound exchange rate, with a potential break above 0.8670 paving the way for a test of April’s high near 0.8735.

Pound Sterling (GBP) was subjected to renewed pressure against the Euro (EUR) late last week and, on Monday, was unable to take advantage of President Trump’s threat to impose 30% tariffs on the EU.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) dipped to 3-month lows close to 1.1530 before a marginal recovery.

According to ING there is GBP/EUR resistance close to 1.1630.

It noted; “This week's data could see EUR/GBP break through 0.8670 resistance in a move to challenge April's spike high at 0.8735. (A break below 1.1530 for GBP/EUR would potentially lead to 1.1450).

MUFG maintains a GBP/EUR target of 1.1300.

The UK Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) and KPMG survey stated that their index of staff availability rose to 66.1 from 63.3 in May, the highest reading since November 2020.only the 2008/09 financial crisis and 2020 pandemic resulted in higher readings.


KPMG chief executive Jon Holt commented; "Ongoing geopolitical turbulence and the threat of rising costs, alongside the promise of technology efficiencies, mean companies continue to wait and see with their hiring."

The latest UK labour-market survey will be released on Thursday.

ING commented; “In May, payrolled employees fell by quite a large 109k. Most expect this number to be revised up.”

It added; “If not, perhaps the UK labour market is in a weaker position after all, and the Bank of England (BoE) will have to cut rates more quickly.”

In comments over the weekend, BoE Governor Bailey commented; "I think the path [for interest rates] is down. I really do believe the path is downward."

He added; "But we continue to use the words 'gradual and careful' because some people say to me 'why are you cutting when inflation's above target?"'

Bailey did, however, note that there could be scope for a faster pace of interest rates if there is evidence of faster labour-market deterioration.


Over the weekend, President Trump stated that 30% tariffs would be imposed on the EU from August 1st.

The EU has adopted a controlled response at this stage and will not adopt counter measures until after August 1st.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency strategist Carol Kong commented; "It seems like financial markets have become insensitive to President Trump's tariff threats now, after so many of them in the past few months."

She added; "Judging by the limited market reaction, markets might think that the latest threat from Trump is actually a manoeuvre to extract more concessions."

According to Rabobank; “it’s Trump’s negotiating style to put more pressure on the other side in the final stages before a deal is reached. And, as one official put it, Trump will never go through with this.”

ING noted the high degree of uncertainty; “We have given up speculating about any longer-term strategies in these trade negotiations. What the letters of the last days, and in particular the letters to the EU and Mexico, show is that we are nearing a make-it-or-break-it moment.”

Assuming there is no extension of the August 1st deadline, ING considers that the US pressure could lead to tangible results or the US Administration decides to scale back the tariff threat which would be positive outcomes.

It does consider a third option would be an all-out trade war which would inevitably destabilise economies and damage risk conditions.

Given that the KPMG survey noted that geo-political stresses were important in curbing recruitment, there will be further concerns that the trade uncertainty will damage the UK labour market and economy.

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TAGS: Euro Pound Forecasts Pound Euro Forecasts