Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Key 1.15 Level in Reach

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) dipped below the 1.1560 area on Tuesday and hit 5-week lows just below 1.1530 with rally attempts fading quickly.

Concerns that the US-EU trade deal will damage the Euro-Zone economy have triggered widespread Euro selling while the dollar has found some further respite.

According to ING; EUR/USD price action remains very poor. And if it can't rally above 1.1600/1625 on any good news today, it could well take out support – both at 1.1555 and 1.1500.”

There will be a further element of caution ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy statement with US data also on the radar.

UoB noted; “EUR closed at 1.1588, down a substantial 1.29% — its second-largest one-day decline this year. The strong surge in downward momentum suggests EUR is likely to break the 1.1540/1.1555 support zone. The next level to watch is 1.1500.”

According to Scotiabank; “We look to a near-term range bound between 1.1520 support and 1.1680 resistance.”

Danske noted the risk of further position adjustment; “Recent price action suggests the USD sell-off may have stalled, with investors cautious of being caught wrong-footed, as broad USD positioning remains stretched on the short side, according to CFTC data.”


Any slide below 1.15 would tend to further erode short-term confidence.

According to MUFG; “The dollar strength so far looks to be positioning on easing trade uncertainties but a cautious Fed and solid labour market data this week could see the move extend – a break below 1.1500 in EUR/USD would suggest the move could prove more extensive.”

Macquarie Group global FX and rates strategist Thierry Wizman noted that US engagement in trade talks and the willingness to make deals could ease fears over the wider economic stance and potentially curb outflows from US assets; "While the U.S. dollar's strength may reflect the perception that the new U.S.-EU deal is lopsided in favour of the U.S., the U.S. dollar's strength may also reflect a feeling that the U.S. is re-engaging with the EU and with its major allies."

MUFG noted that there is still a lot of uncertainty ahead of the August 1st deadline; “So a lot can still go wrong to create renewed and more elevated uncertainty.”

It also pointed to legal challenges to Trump’s executive orders on trade and added; “The legality of the tariff approach will place in question the revenue stream for the government that has recently helped alleviate investor concerns over the financing of the ‘ One Big Beautiful Bill’ and the debt outlook.”

UBS multi-asset strategist Anthi Tsouvali still sees scope for renewed dollar losses; "If you think about what we expected in the beginning of the year, no one really thought that the euro was going to be so strong. We all thought that, especially post Liberation Day, the dollar will remain strong. We continue to see the dollar weakening."

Berenberg notes that any positive US data could trigger US triumphalism; As the damage to US consumers and US growth will only show up over time, his supports may not realise for quite a while how much Trump’s policies are hurting most of them, especially as Trump is an expert at deflecting blame. This may encourage him to continue with (economic) policies that are bad for the US and the world.”

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