Euro to Dollar Forecast: "Upside Risks" for EUR/USD This Week

Modified: Tuesday, 19 August 2025 22:33 BST - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: "Upside Risks" for EUR/USD This Week

• EUR/USD dipped to 1.1640 before recovering near 1.1675.
• Gas prices fell, easing pressure on the Euro.
• Support at 1.1630/1.1650; resistance 1.1685/1.1700 (UoB).
• Geopolitical talks on Ukraine dominate market focus.
• EUR/USD Upside risks seen, with ING flagging potential return above 1.1700.

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) retreated to lows near 1.1640 in early Europe on Tuesday before rallying to 1.1675.

The focus has been on geo-political developments and US efforts to broker a deal over Ukraine. Equities posted gains on Tuesday with overall risk conditions holding steady while energy prices remained under downward pressure.

Lower gas prices should support the Euro.

According to UoB; “any decline is unlikely to threaten the major support at 1.1630 (there is another support at 1.1650). On the upside, resistance levels are at 1.1685 and 1.1700.”

ING noted that overall risk appetite held firm and added; “Higher-beta European currencies such as CEE FX and Scandies held steady, suggesting investors remain broadly constructive on geopolitical de-escalation. Also, this may be an indication that the euro’s correction may well be exacerbated by positioning re-adjustments.”

It added; “Based on the USD view, we see some upside risks from here through the rest of the week in EUR/USD. A return above 1.170 remains quite possible before the end of this week.”

President Trump and Ukraine President Zelensky held talks in Washington on Monday and were joined by European leaders.


Trump has suggested that a ceasefire would no longer be needed and that the conflict could move directly to a settlement, although the Europeans were less convinced.

The US will continue to push for a deal for Ukraine to give up territory in return for security guarantees.

Washington has given some hints that it will provide some guarantees, but there are still doubts whether it would be willing to engage in actual support.

Rabobank expects the US will put the onus on Europe; “The EU, presumably, is set to be sidelined at that trilateral meeting despite the expectation that they will be writing the cheques for US arms and supplying the boots on the ground to enforce any security guarantees.”

It added; “As he pursues his ambition for a Nobel Peace Prize, Trump is playing poker with the house’s money and Ukraine’s land. EU pretentions to ‘strategic autonomy’ are once again exposed as an Emperor who has no clothes.”

MUFG commented; “If the talks prove successful in ending the conflict in Ukraine it could provide more support for European currencies that have already outperformed this year. The price of natural gas in Europe just fallen to its lowest level in over a year highlighting that the negative terms of trade shock continues to fade.”

According to ING; “While the path to peace in Ukraine appears somewhat clearer following last Friday’s and Monday’s summits, markets remain cautious. This is understandable, given that the most challenging negotiations – particularly over territorial issues – are still ahead of us.”

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John's new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way, ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts