Pound Sterling Forecast: Can GBP/USD Push Higher Before US GDP Data?

Modified: Tuesday, 26 August 2025 21:00 BST - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound Sterling Forecast: Can GBP/USD Push Higher Before US GDP Data?

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate firmed on Tuesday, despite slightly stronger-than-expected US data, as President Trump continued his criticism of the Federal Reserve.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3482, up roughly 0.2% from the start of Tuesday’s session.

The US Dollar (USD) came under pressure on Tuesday, losing ground against several of its major counterparts after the release of July’s durable goods orders.

Although the data surprised slightly to the upside, climbing from -9.4% to -2.8% instead of the -4% expected, it failed to provide meaningful support for the ‘Greenback’.

Investor caution was heightened following news that US President Donald Trump had moved to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the central bank’s independence.

Against this backdrop, USD exchange rates remained under pressure throughout Tuesday’s European session, with the currency largely on the defensive.

The Pound (GBP) lacked clear direction on Tuesday, as a quiet UK economic calendar left Sterling drifting with broader market mood.

Markets adopted a wait-and-see approach on Tuesday as attention turned to an upcoming speech from Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann.

If Mann signals support for keeping interest rates elevated, her remarks could provide a late boost for Sterling.

GBP/USD Exchange Rate Forecast: UK Mid-Level Release in the Spotlight

Looking ahead to Wednesday’s European session, the GBP/USD exchange rate is likely to take its lead from the UK’s latest CBI distributive trades survey.

Although considered a mid-tier release, the survey can still offer some insight into business sentiment.

While it is unlikely to trigger significant volatility in the Pound, any modest improvement in the index could provide Sterling with a small boost as markets navigate mid-week trade.

Turning to the US Dollar, the economic calendar on Wednesday is relatively quiet, likely leaving the ‘Greenback’ to be influenced by broader market sentiment.

Attention may instead shift to Thursday’s key release of the US GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2025, which is expected to show a rebound in economic activity and could set the tone for USD movement later in the week.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts