Pound to Dollar Price News, Forecast: GBP/USD Tests, Fails Key 1.36 Resistance

Modified: Wednesday, 10 September 2025 10:15 BST - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Price News, Forecast: GBP/USD Tests, Fails Key 1.36 Resistance

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate surged to highs at 1.3590 in Europe on Tuesday before a limited retreat to below 1.3550 with a solid overall tone. The dollar managed to avoid renewed selling despite further concerns surrounding the labour market.

The immediate focus will remain on a key GBP/USD resistance area around 1.3590/1.3600.

UoB is not convinced that resistance will break; “the current price movements as part of a broad range, likely between 1.3430 and 1.3595.”

Scotiabank remains more positive on the outlook; “The GBP is closing in on the mid-August highs around 1.36 and appears poised to push toward the 1.3789 multi-year high from July 1.”

Bank of America is uneasy over UK fundamentals and has downgraded forecasts slightly, but still expects that GBP/USD will strengthen to 1.40 at the end of 2025.

Markets remain convinced that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week, although the chances of a 50 basis-point cut have dipped back below 10%.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US non-farm payrolls were revised down by 911,000 for the year to March.

This estimate was higher than more forecasts and reinforced concerns over the labour market, although the dollar managed to avoid further immediate selling pressure.

ING commented; “This time last year, the preliminary revision was -818k and it looks like we would need to see a bigger number than that to trigger a fresh leg lower in short-term US interest rates and the dollar.”

BNP Paribas has adjusted its interest rate forecasts; “We now expect the Fed to deliver 25bp rate cuts at all of its three upcoming meetings (versus two previously). We believe a continued restrictive monetary policy stance is now politically unfeasible if the cost was elevated unemployment.”

The UK 30-year bond yield held below 5.50% which helped limit the scope for further Pound selling.

Scotiabank has an optimistic stance on the Pound; “Markets are clearly breathing a sigh of relief over PM Starmer’s recent cabinet shuffle and expressing confidence, or at least less concern, heading into the fall and the upcoming Autumn Statement (budget) scheduled for November 26.”

DBS senior FX strategist Philip Wee expects yield trends will be favourable; "Markets are positioning for next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and Bank of England meetings, where the Fed will likely signal more cuts this year and the BOE will likely hint at delaying cuts to 2026."

Bank of America is more cautious over the outlook following the recent bout of bond-market tensions. According to the bank; “What is concerning for GBP is that the recent tumult has taken place in a void of new information, highlighting the underlying vulnerability of the pound to adverse moves in fixed income.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts