Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Needs Softer Jobs Data to Push Above 1.1800

Modified: Monday, 29 September 2025 23:15 BST - Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Needs Softer Jobs Data to Push Above 1.1800

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) found some support just above 1.1700 on Monday and advanced to 1.1750 just after the New York open as US yields drifted lower.

According to UoB; “while downward momentum has slowed somewhat, only a breach of 1.1760 would indicate that the downside risk has faded.”

Scotiabank is more confident over the outlook; “We see nothing in terms of resistance ahead of 1.18 and look to a near-term range bound between 1.1680 and 1.1780.”

ING expects data will be a crucial element; “EUR/USD looks to have put in a short-term low near 1.1650, but will require some softer US jobs data to break back above the 1.1790/1800 area this week.”

Jobs data will certainly have an important impact on confidence in further interest rate cuts and dollar sentiment.

Markets are now more confident in the outlook for a further October cut with traders pricing in close to a 90% chance of a move next month.

In comments on Monday, Cleveland Fed President Hammack stated that there were greater risks over inflation rather than the labour market at this stage. She also stated that she had concerns over inflation expectations and that a restrictive monetary policy is needed.

Rabobank noted tensions between Chair Powell and the Administration; “Powell has been saying that the risks to inflation are tilted to the upside while the risks to employment are tilted to the downside. In a word, what he is describing is stagflation, but the White House and newly-minted Fed Governor Stephen Miran disagree and see risks to growth and employment as far more pressing than upside risks to prices.”

Markets are also monitoring the risk of a government shutdown. The impact could have greater impact than recent shutdowns given the risk of workers being dismissed rather than furloughed.

Looking at the medium-term outlook, Commerzbank FX analyst Michael Pfister noted that the dollar also declined in the first few months of Trump’s first term before rebounding.

He added; “This time, such a recovery is likely to be more difficult, given the attacks on the Fed and the weakening real economy."

MUFG commented on the overall outlook; “Our forecast for the US dollar to weaken further heading into year-end are built on the assumption the Fed will deliver two further 25bps cuts by the end of this year as the labour market remains weak.”

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John's new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way, ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts