Euro to Dollar Forecast: USD Gains Persist, EUR Remains Oversold

Modified: Sunday, 12 October 2025 21:45 BST - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: USD Gains Persist, EUR Remains Oversold

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) extended losses to two-month lows near 1.1550 on Friday before stabilising around 1.1575, with a lack of buying interest keeping the single currency pinned lower. Analysts warn that further losses toward 1.15 remain possible if sentiment fails to improve.

EUR/USD Forecasts: Dollar Rally

The dollar’s rally extended, with the dollar index hitting ten-week highs above 99.50 before easing to 99.30.

Chris Weston of Pepperstone noted; “The recent dollar rally has gone against market positioning and prompted a partial covering of USD shorts.”

He added; “There remains a high degree of scepticism that the USD can materially push through 100, a level in the dollar index that was quickly reversed in May.”

UoB maintained a cautious tone; “Conditions remain oversold, but with no signs of stabilisation just yet, EUR could drop below 1.1540.
The next support at 1.1490 is unlikely to come into view today.”

ING sees room for a recovery once selling pressure fades; “Should EUR/USD take another hit, we would expect decent buying in the dips close to 1.150… A return to 1.170, albeit not in a smooth, unidirectional fashion, remains our preference.”

Political uncertainty in France continues to weigh.

President Macron is due to meet party leaders on Friday before naming a new Prime Minister.

Rabobank warned; “Political risks remain until the budget negotiations are concluded. The incoming prime minister still faces tough negotiations… any compromises will weaken the fiscal consolidation.”

Meanwhile, New York Fed President Williams signalled further monetary easing; “My focus is on the downside risks to the labour market,” he said, noting fewer inflation pressures from tariffs.

MUFG commented; “His remarks reflect the majority FOMC view that further cuts are likely over coming meetings.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts