GBP/USD Forecast: US Dollar Gains as Oil Nears $90 and Iran Talks Stall

Modified: Tuesday, 11 August 2026 20:31 BST - Written by James Fuller

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: US Dollar Gains as Oil Nears $90 and Iran Talks Stall

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate edged lower on Tuesday as renewed geopolitical uncertainty encouraged investors to favour the safe-haven US Dollar.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3499, down slightly from Tuesday’s opening levels.

The US Dollar (USD) strengthened on Tuesday as hopes of a swift agreement between the US and Iran continued to fade.

Crude oil prices climbed back towards the $90-per-barrel mark after negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz hit another obstacle, with US President Donald Trump insisting any future deal must include additional concessions from Tehran.

Responding to Iran's demands for sanctions relief and compensation, Trump argued that Iran should instead compensate the US for what he described as decades of damage.

The tougher rhetoric dampened expectations that a breakthrough is imminent, reversing some of the optimism that had built after officials suggested last week that an agreement could soon be reached.

The Pound (GBP) traded in a narrow range on Tuesday, finding modest support after a survey indicated that UK consumer confidence climbed to its highest level in almost two years.

According to Barclays, household sentiment improved in July as concerns over personal finances and job security continued to ease.

The stronger mood was also reflected in spending habits, with favourable summer weather and the World Cup encouraging consumers to spend more on retail, hospitality and leisure activities.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Softer US Inflation to Pressure the 'Greenback'?

Attention now turns to Wednesday's US consumer price index, which is expected to be the key driver of movement in the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate.

Economists anticipate inflation eased again in July. If confirmed, the figures could reduce expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in September, potentially weighing on the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, Sterling investors will increasingly focus on Thursday's UK GDP release.

Forecasts suggest economic growth slowed in the second quarter after a robust start to the year, although the UK economy is still expected to have expanded at a healthy pace.

A resilient growth reading could reinforce expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may need to maintain a relatively hawkish stance, offering additional support to the Pound.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts