The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) drifted lower on Tuesday as persistent political uncertainty in the UK continued to weigh on Sterling sentiment.
At the time of writing, GBP/EUR was trading around €1.1464, down roughly 0.2% on the session as investors remained cautious.
The Pound traded on the defensive throughout the day as questions over Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership lingered. Confidence in Sterling has been unsettled by a series of political developments that have left markets uneasy about the stability of the UK government.
Pressure on Starmer intensified following reports that he was aware of Peter Mandelson’s links to Jeffrey Epstein at the time of Mandelson’s appointment as UK ambassador to the US. The controversy has sparked renewed criticism within Labour and raised broader concerns about judgement at the top of government.
Those concerns deepened further at the start of the week when Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar publicly urged Starmer to step aside, while two senior aides resigned. Although an immediate leadership challenge was avoided after cabinet members rallied around the Prime Minister, doubts over his longer-term position persist.
This lingering sense of instability proved a clear drag on the Pound, leaving GBP vulnerable to further losses against the Euro.
The Euro traded in a narrow range, with a lack of fresh Eurozone economic releases leaving the single currency short of clear direction. With no high-impact data on the calendar, EUR investors were reluctant to adjust positions.
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The Euro did draw some limited support from its inverse relationship with the US Dollar, which remained on the back foot. However, subdued trading conditions in the Greenback itself meant this dynamic offered only modest support, capping EUR upside.
GBP/EUR Forecast: ECB Rhetoric and UK Politics in Focus
Looking ahead, comments from European Central Bank policymakers could inject volatility into the Euro. Dovish member Piero Cipollone is due to speak earlier in the day, followed by hawkish Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel. Any divergence in tone could leave EUR prone to choppy price action.
The Euro may also take cues from the US Dollar, given its strong inverse relationship with the Greenback. Attention remains on the delayed US non-farm payrolls report, with evidence of labour market weakness likely to undermine USD and potentially lend support to EUR.
For the Pound, the near-term outlook remains dominated by politics rather than data. With no major UK economic releases scheduled, Sterling is likely to remain sensitive to developments in Westminster.
If doubts surrounding Keir Starmer’s leadership continue to linger, the Pound may struggle to attract demand. Any fresh signs of internal pressure or renewed manoeuvring from potential challengers could leave GBP exposed to further downside against the Euro.
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