GBP/USD Forecast: BoE Comments and JOLTS Data in Focus

Modified: Monday, 1 June 2026 20:01 BST - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: BoE Comments and JOLTS Data in Focus

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate fell on Monday as escalating tensions in the Middle East and stronger-than-expected US data lifted the safe-haven ‘Greenback’.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3421, down more than 0.2% on the day.

The safe-haven US Dollar (USD) strengthened on Monday as a deterioration in market sentiment drove investors towards safer assets.

The latest bout of risk aversion followed an exchange of strikes between the US and Iran over the weekend. Iran subsequently accused the US and Israel of breaching the ceasefire agreement and stated that it would withdraw from peace talks until Israel halted its attacks on Lebanon.

Meanwhile, the currency also drew support from upbeat US economic data. The latest ISM manufacturing PMI showed that factory activity accelerated more sharply than expected in May, with the index rising from 52.7 to 54, beating forecasts of 53.

Meanwhile, the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound (GBP) weakened against its safer peers as the market mood soured.

Sterling had initially edged higher in the morning after the UK’s latest manufacturing PMI showed activity climbing to a four-year high in May. The survey also reported rising input price inflation, which fuelled expectations for further Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hikes.

While this may have helped to limit the Pound’s losses, domestic political uncertainty may have dented GBP. On Monday, the government published documents relating to the controversial appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the US, with the UK’s febrile political atmosphere potentially unnerving investors.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Could BoE Comments Boost Sterling?

Looking ahead, UK economic data is limited on Tuesday. However, BoE policymaker Megan Greene is due to speak in the afternoon. As Greene is considered one of the more hawkish members of the Monetary Policy Committee, Sterling could strengthen if she argues in favour of higher interest rates.

Tuesday will also see the publication of the latest US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The data is expected to show a marginal decline in job openings in April, which may have only a muted impact on the US Dollar. However, any surprises could spark sharper movement.

Elsewhere, developments in the Middle East could inject volatility into GBP/USD by influencing risk appetite. Hopes of peace may lift market sentiment and potentially support the Pound, while a fresh escalation in tensions would likely sour the mood and bolster the safe-haven US Dollar.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts