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Foreign Exchange Insight : GBP EUR Rate Closes Higher For Fourth Consecutive Session Following Eurozone Discord on Second Greek Bail-Out

June 14, 2011 - Written by John Cameron

The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP EUR) is 1.1372. The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP USD) is 1.6409. The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP AUD) is 1.5433.

The Euro suffered a day of losses on the currency market yesterday following the emergence of reports suggesting that a stand-off is taking place between ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble regarding the terms of a second Greek bail-out.

Schaeuble is reportedly pushing for current creditors to shoulder some of the cost of a second rescue package. However, Trichet describes such a potential move as a ‘massive mistake’.

Analysts had been factoring in the arrangement of a second Greek bail-out as almost a ‘done-deal’, so the disagreement between German officials and the ECB has caused investors to adjust their positions. This saw the Euro trade weaker against the Pound again yesterday, with the GBP EUR rate closing up for the for the fourth consecutive session at 1.1355. Further Euro weakness is possible today if Eurozone officials do not show signs of reaching an accord.

Meanwhile in the UK, yesterdays RICS House Price Balance Survey for May showed that the number of British surveyors who feel that prices in the UK domestic housing sector are in retreat outnumbered those who believe that sector prices are advancing by 28%. The figure came out significantly worse than analysts’ expectations of a 20% divergence, casting further doubts on the UK property market’s ability to lead the British economy back to healthier levels of growth, particularly in light of the weak Halifax House Price report released at the start of last week.

The major risk event for Sterling during today’s session comes this morning, with the release of May’s monthly CPI inflation figure. Last month saw the government’s headline measure of price increases unexpectedly rise to 4.5% and if today’s figure prints above this level then the GBP EUR rate should close higher, registering a fifth consecutive up-day for the pair.


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