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Forecast Today: Pound Euro Exchange Rate Close to Best 2014 Price, Canadian to Support US Dollar (USD)

August 29, 2014 - Written by John Cameron

Forecasters had predicted further upside for the Pound euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) following Friday's eurozone inflation data. Movement for the Canadian Dollar (currency:CAD) and the US Dollar (currency:USD) was also forecast, with the publication of key North American data.

Friday morning’s keynote data release from the eurozone ratcheted up the pressure on the single currency. July’s year-on-year Consumer Price Index data printed at 0.4%, but the August version of the headline regional inflation gauge showed a mild dip to 0.3%.

Latest Pound Sterling Exchange Rates, Updated for Weekend

- The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate is 1.77718 GBP/AUD.
- The Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate is 1.80560 GBP/CAD.
- The Pound to Euro exchange rate is 1.26391 GBP/EUR.
- The Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate is 1.98486 GBP/NZD.
- The Pound to Dollar exchange rate is 1.65980 GBP/USD.

The acceleration in the rate of decrease in prices in mainland Europe adds to the impression that the European Central Bank may have to introduce its own version of Quantitative Easing – a move which would increase selling pressure on the local unit.

The market reacted to the news by sending the Sterling euro exchange rate up to within a cent of its 2-year high of 1.2700 GBP/EUR earlier on. The break to 1.2606 implies that investors feel that a shift in policy from the ECB on QE is imminent. Expect GBP EUR to move upwards towards its range-topping rate of 1.2897 if such a move materialised.

Meanwhile, there was positive news for the Pound Sterling (currency:GBP) during the first part of today’s session following the publication of this month’s edition of the closely-watched Nationwide House Price Survey. The gauge of the state of Britain’s housing market was expected to reveal a monthly increase of just 0.1% in the level of UK property prices, so the result of 0.8% provided a strong fillip for the Pound. The data also revealed that the average property price in Britain increased by a heady 11.0% during the past twelve months. The result adds to the impression that the UK property market is now in danger of overheating and is likely to lead to an increase in calls for the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee to hike its interest rate sooner rather than later. Expect Sterling to enjoy the benefits for weeks to come.

Looking ahead, this afternoon’s session brings the publication of the latest Canadian Gross Domestic Product numbers, with a decent annualised showing of 3.0% anticipated. July’s US Personal Consumption Expenditure figure, due for publication at the same time, has the potential to support the US Dollar (currency:USD), if it follows the theme of recent releases from the States in beating analysts’ expectations.

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