Currency News

Daily Exchange Rate Forecasts & Currency News

Heavy Losses Forecast for British Pound Sterling vs US Dollar GBP USD on Jobs Data

October 5, 2015 - Written by Frank Davies

Foreign Exchange Predictions: US Jobs Data Key to Exchange Rate Movement



The main event in the global currency markets today comes in the form of September’s US jobs data, and in particular the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) element of these numbers.

US Dollar Forecast: Strong US Figures Could Drive US Dollar Higher against GBP, EUR Today



Yesterday’s session provided investors with some insight into the possible tone of these results, with the publication of weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims statistics in the States, however, the figures appeared to paint a mixed picture of the current situation in the vast American labour market. A lower than anticipated print from the Continuing Claims number was taken as a positive for Dollar holders, but the fact that the Initial Jobless Claims figure had seen a larger than expected weekly increase was a significant disappointment.

Will the Fed Hike Rates in October? Speculation Predicted to Drive USD, Pound, Euro Exchange Rate Shifts



Most FX insiders agreed that this afternoon’s US employment data could go either way; an increase in the level of job creation is anticipated, with the consensus amongst analysts being that over 200,000 new positions were generated in the world’s premier economy – a significant increase from August’s counterpart showing of 173,000. Meanwhile, the overall level of joblessness Stateside is expected to have remained static at 5.1%.

Ordinarily, a showing of well above the anticipated level for any monthly NFP jobs number would be considered a positive thing for the US Dollar (currency : USD). However, with most speculators factoring-in a US Federal Reserve interest rate increase for December, a strong result this afternoon will be even more beneficial for the Buck than would normally be the case. The impact upon US interest rate expectations if the labour market numbers better FX insiders’ expectations means that anything post-200,000 for the NFP element is forecast to be a major negative for the Commodity Dollars.

Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar Forecast: AUD, NZD, CAD Could Fall to Worst Rates



Advertisement
In such an instance, expect the Australian Dollar (currency : AUD), New Zealand Dollar (currency : NZD) and Canadian Dollar (currency : CAD) to record sustained losses against the Pound Sterling (currency : GBP).

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John's new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way, ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.


TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts Pound Sterling Forecasts

Comments are currrently disabled