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Weekly Forecast for British Pound Sterling GBP USD US Dollar Data Highlights

November 2, 2015 - Written by John Cameron

US ISM Manufacturing Data to Drive Currency Market Today

The Pound Sterling (currency : GBP) experienced considerable price action against the other major global currencies during last week’s session and a packed data schedule this week is forecast to provoke further movement.

Our leading analyst takes a look at the projected highlights below –

FX investors continue to eye a possible US Federal Reserve interest rate increase as the key driver for movement in the currency markets.

For this reason, tier one US data releases today and on Wednesday and Friday are the stand-out releases this week.

October’s edition of the ISM Manufacturing survey in the States is penned in for publication shortly and a print of 50.0 – down from the previous month’s showing of 50.2 – is anticipated.

A result of 50 would point to no overall growth in factory output Stateside but would equally suggest that activity in the US manufacturing sector has not declined.

With such a knife-edge expectation, there appears a high likelihood that the result will have a pronounced impact on investors’ predictions for the timing of the next US interest rate hike.

An outcome of above 50.0 will therefore favour the US Dollar (currency : USD), potentially sending the GBP USD exchange rate down towards the 1.5000 threshold, while a disappointing result will send Cable back up towards the 1.6000 GBP USD level.

GBP/USD Conversion Rate Trending Around 1.54 ahead of Packed Weekly Economic Docket

Meanwhile, Wednesday’s US ISM Non-Manufacturing survey will give investors an insight into the health of the all-important services sector of the American economy.

The October figure is expected to show a slight drop to 56.5 in comparison with the September number. With the non-services sectors of the US economy convincingly outperforming the manufacturing sectors, the number takes on added significance.

Pound Sterling to US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast to Strengthen on US Non-Farm Payrolls

However, the main data event for the week comes on Friday afternoon with the publication of October’s US labour market data.

Last month’s version of the data contained a highly disappointing result from the Non-Farm Payrolls element showing that a relatively lowly 142,000 new jobs had been created.

If this month’s Non-Farm Payroll figure proves as disappointing then expect the GBP USD exchange rate to continue on its current upward trajectory.

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