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Weekly FX Market Pound Sterling GBP Data Forecast

December 7, 2015 - Written by John Cameron

GBP to USD Conversion Rate Predicted to Slump to 14.00s if Friday's US Data Prints Positively



Last week saw a jam packed data schedule which brought pronounced price action for the Pound Sterling (currency : GBP) against the other sixteen most actively traded global currencies.

This week’s roster brings fewer block-buster statistics but there are still several tier one data releases to provide price action for Sterling pairs. Our leading takes a look at the likely highlights below.

D-day is looming for US Dollar-watchers, with the 16th December seeing the final Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement of the year.

Futures markets are pricing-in an almost 80% probability that this will be the day when American interest rates are hiked for the first time in almost a decade.

However, two data releases on Friday afternoon have the potential to derail the best laid plans of US policymakers; November’s Advance Retail Sales figure is closely followed by this month’s Michigan confidence survey.

A decent showing from both will cause futures markets participants to increase their bets on a December rate increase and the Pound Sterling US Dollar exchange rate will slump back into the 1.4000s GBP USD as a consequence.

RBNZ Policy Announcement to Drive GBP to NZD Exchange Rate Volatility



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Elsewhere, Wednesday evening’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy announcement is expected to have a pronounced effect on the Pound New Zealand Dollar exchange rate.

Most analysts forecast that the RBNZ board will decide to cut its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%; such a move on its own may not therefore be enough to send the GBP NZD exchange rate far Northwards on its own.

However, if the RBNZ’s accompanying statement hints at further rate cuts to come, then expect GBP NZD to re-establish itself in the 2.3000s once more.

Meanwhile, a strong showing from Wednesday night’s jobs data on the other side of the Tasman Sea could have the opposite effect on the GBP AUD exchange rate, potentially sending it down towards the two to one threshold.

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TAGS: American Dollar Forecasts Pound Dollar Forecasts Pound New Zealand D Forecasts

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