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GBP/EUR Forecast: Pound to Euro Exchange Rate Gaining as Lockdown Measures Eased in England

April 12, 2021 - Written by John Cameron

The Pound to Euro exchange rate is steadily gaining this morning as lockdown measures are eased in England.

At the time of writing, the GBP/EUR pairing is trading at around 1.1570.

Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rate Gaining as Lockdown Eased in England

The Pound is gaining against the Euro this morning as England’s second stage of lockdown easing comes into force.

Non-essential retail, outdoor hospitality, indoor gyms and hairdressers have all been able to reopen under strict guidelines from the government.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson urged people to remember to behave responsibly as shops reopen:

‘I’m sure it will be a huge relief for those business owners who have been closed for so long, and for everyone else it’s a chance to get back to doing some of the things we love and have missed.’

‘I urge everyone to continue to behave responsibly and remember ‘hands, face, space and fresh air’ to suppress Covid as we push on with our vaccination programme.’

Any concerns over the UK’s vaccine rollout last week have all but been forgotten as investors focus on the reopening of the UK’s economy.

Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate Muted Despite Positive Eurozone Retail Sales

The Euro has been muted against the Pound this morning as better-than-expected retail sales figures from the Eurozone did little to offset Sterling’s new found strength.

As reported by Eurostat, the Eurozone's retail trade rose 3 percent from a month earlier in February 2021, rebounding from a 5.2 percent slump in January.

The introduction of stricter lockdowns across the Eurozone in the past few weeks seem to have limited the impact of the positive retail figures.

The Eurozone is hoping to up its vaccine rollout in the coming weeks to help offset the devastating effects of the third wave of coronavirus across the bloc.

On Friday the EU’s vaccine tsar, Thierry Breton said that AstraZeneca has agreed that all but one batch of its Covid-19 vaccine produced in the Netherlands will be sent to European member states rather than the UK.

He blamed the delay in vaccines on supply chain issues saying:

‘If AstraZeneca had delivered the way it should have delivered to us, like I understand it did in the UK, we will have been exactly in the same situation, even really better, than the UK today, which did a great organisation through the NHS to vaccinate people.’

GBP/EUR Exchange Rate Forecast: UK GDP Data in Focus

For Pound investors tomorrow will see the release of the UK’s GDP figures for February which are forecast to show a 0.6% growth, up from January’s -2.9% drop which could push Sterling higher.

Tomorrow will also see the UK’s industrial production data from February, which due to strict lockdown restrictions imposed at the start of the year is expected to remain in contraction.

For Euro traders, tomorrow’s Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index for April could shed some light on the current economic situation in the bloc.

The index is forecast to rise 3 points to 77, however renewed lockdowns across the Eurozone could cause the index to miss forecasts, and EUR to suffer further.

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