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GBP/AUD Forecast: Pound Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Firms after UK Unemployment Falls

June 15, 2021 - Written by John Cameron

The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate has firmed this morning after UK unemployment edged lower during May.

At the time of writing the GBP/AUD pairing are trading around the AU$1.8321 level as the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes did nothing to support the ‘Aussie.’

Pound (GBP) Mixed after UK Lockdown Easing Delayed

The Pound has been mixed against many of its counterparts today following the announcement from UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson yesterday evening that the UK would remain under current lockdown restrictions for a further month.

A rise in coronavirus cases and the delta variant of the virus becoming dominant in the UK were the main reasons behind the move.

However, supporting Sterling this morning has been the release of the most recent employment change figures from the UK for May.

UK unemployment edged lower to 4.7% during May as businesses added 197,000 workers to payrolls as much of the UK left harsher lockdown measures.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak commented on the latest figures:

‘Our Plan for Jobs is working - the latest forecasts for unemployment are around half of what was previously feared and the number of employees on payroll is at its highest level since April last year.’

‘We understand the value of work and the distress caused by unemployment – that is why we are continuing to support people and jobs.’

Australian Dollar (AUD) Lacks Direction after RBA Meeting Minutes

The Australian Dollar has lacked direction this morning as the latest RBA meeting minutes did nothing to support AUD.

As reported by ING, ‘The minutes of the 1 June RBA meeting showed as expected, Australia's Central Bank in a holding pattern as it awaits more data on the labour market, wages and inflation - no hints about any imminent changes in their stance.’

More so, a more fearful market mood has driven investors to safe-haven currencies, meaning the risk-correlated ‘Aussie’ has missed out.

GBP/AUD Exchange Rate Outlook: UK Inflation Rate in Focus

Tomorrow will see the release of the latest inflation rate data from the UK for May, which is meets forecasts of 1.8% could provide fresh support for Sterling.

Thursday will see Australian Dollar traders focusing on the most recent employment change data from Australia as well as a speech from RBA Governor Lowe. If Australian unemployment beats forecasts and edges lower then AUD could find itself supported and heading higher.

The GBP/AUD pairing will continue to be driven by any further coronavirus developments in the coming days as Pound investors digest the extended lockdown in the UK.

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