Euro to Pound Sterling Forecast: Sell "Towards 0.850" on Equity Futures Stabilisation

April 15, 2025 - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Euro to Pound Sterling Forecast: Sell "Towards 0.850" on Equity Futures Stabilisation

As the tariff market volatility seemingly eased on Monday, the Pound to Euro rate secured a further recovery to 1.1640.

There has been a decline in overall volatility in global currency markets as the immediate fear element surrounding US trade tariffs has eased.

Although there are still very important concerns surrounding the overall outlook, the retreat in volatility across asset classes has helped underpin the Pound in global markets.

According to TD Securities; "Last week was all about deleveraging, liquidation, and asset re-allocation out of U.S. assets. This week's tone is calmer in what is a holiday shortened week."

ING added; “It's early days, but conditions in FX markets look like they're settling a little as the Easter holiday approaches.

According to ING; “Equity futures point to more tentative stabilisation, meaning the pair can continue hedging lower towards 0.850, also helped by the ECB’s moving first on easing.” (GBP/EUR gains towards 1.1765).

The UK also received a glimmer of hope on the trade front with US Vice-President Vance stating that there was a good chance that the UK could secure a trade deal with the US.


According to Vance “we’re certainly working very hard with Keir Starmer’s government to secure an agreement.”

The overall UK data flow was mixed with some reservations over underlying trends.

The latest labour-market data recorded an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.4% in the three months to February.

The number of people on payrolls declined 8,000 for February and there was a provisional 78,000 slide for March.

Vacancies declined on the month, the 33rd successive fall, and pushed vacancies below pre-pandemic levels.

The annual increase in headline wages growth increased marginally to 5.9% from a revised 5.8% previously while underlying growth was unchanged at 5.6%.

The evidence of a weaker labour market will potentially increase the scope for further Bank of England interest rate cuts, but there will still be concerns over the pace of wages growth.


Markets overall remain confident over a further small rate cut at the May policy meeting.

The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) business confidence monitor, dipped to -3 from 0.2 previously and the weakest reading since the fourth quarter of 2022.

Alan Vallance, the Institute’s chief executive, commented; “These findings reveal a state of despondency among businesses as they stave off a blizzard of extra outlays, including the rise in national insurance.”

According to the ICAEW, more than half of businesses (56%) stated that tax increases were a growing challenge, a new record for the survey which first began in 2004.

He added; “Meanwhile, the US tariff announcements have loaded on exceptional uncertainty and the very real prospect of higher costs and global economic woes.”

The BRC recorded a 0.9% increase in like-for-like retail sales in the year to March, unchanged from the previous month.

The annual comparison was distorted to some extent by the timing of Easter and suggested solid spending.

Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, commented; “Despite a challenging global geopolitical landscape, the small increase in both food and non-food sales masked signs of underlying strengthening of demand given March 2025’s comparison with last year’s early Easter.”

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