Pound Sterling Forecast: GBP/USD Holds $1.34 Range Ahead of Key US ISM Release

Modified: Wednesday, 3 September 2025 21:00 BST - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound Sterling Forecast: GBP/USD Holds $1.34 Range Ahead of Key US ISM Release

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) traded within a narrow range on Wednesday, as investors digested the latest US JOLTs job openings data alongside fresh figures from the UK’s services PMI.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3402.

The US Dollar (USD) lost ground against most major currencies on Wednesday, weighed down by softer-than-expected labour market data.

The latest JOLTs report showed job openings in July fell to 7.181 million, missing forecasts of a rise to 7.4 million and marking a decline from June’s 7.357 million.

The weaker print raised fresh concerns about cooling demand in the US job market.

Adding to the pressure, a mildly optimistic tone across global markets dampened appetite for the safe-haven ‘Greenback’, leaving it on the back foot through mid-week trade.

The Pound held its ground on Wednesday, finding support from stronger-than-expected economic figures and firm messaging from the Bank of England (BoE), even as UK bond yields continued to edge higher.

August’s Services PMI came in at 54.2, up from 51.8 in July, marking the highest reading since April.

That jump suggests business activity in the UK’s all-important services sector is picking up pace, with demand showing signs of a healthy rebound.

Adding to the supportive tone, BoE policymaker Catherine Mann spoke at the Global’s London and Westminster Day roundtable, where she reinforced the Bank’s focus on keeping inflation under control.

Together, the stronger data and Mann’s firm remarks helped Sterling hold steady, even as broader market sentiment remained cautious.

GBP/USD Exchange Rate Forecast: US ISM PMI in the Spotlight

As Thursday’s European session approaches, the spotlight turns to the upcoming release of the US ISM Services PMI for August.

Markets are forecasting a modest uptick in activity, with the index expected to rise from 50.1 to 51, signalling continued expansion in the services sector.

If confirmed, the data could lend support to the US Dollar, potentially boosting its performance later in the session.

On the UK side, the economic calendar will be notably quiet, offering no fresh data to steer the Pound.

In the absence of domestic catalysts, Sterling may lack clear direction, leaving its movements largely influenced by broader market dynamics.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts