Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Seen in 1.1675–1.1790 Range

Modified: Friday, 3 October 2025 10:00 BST - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Seen in 1.1675–1.1790 Range

The US Dollar’s weakness after poor US jobs data lifted EUR/USD close to 1.1780, but the euro failed to hold gains. ING still sees upside risk, while UoB stays neutral inside 1.1675–1.1790. Rabobank flags the risk of prolonged data delays complicating the Fed’s October policy meeting.

EUR/USD Forecasts: Battling for Gains

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate hit a peak close to 1.1780 on Wednesday after very weak US data, but failed to hold the gains and dipped to 1.1725 before trading just above 1.1750 on Thursday.

According to UoB; “We are neutral on EUR now and expect it to trade between 1.1675 and 1.1790 for the time being.”

ING commented; “Yesterday’s price action in EUR/USD suggests the rally is looking a bit tired without any substantial catalysts at the moment.”

Markets have already priced in two further rate cuts this year, lessening the scope for further dollar selling.

ING added; “Risks remain tilted to the upside for EUR/USD, given that downside risks are more concentrated on the US side, but a break above 1.180 may require new data inputs.”

US jobs data released on Wednesday was much weaker than expected with ADP reporting a 32,000 slide in private payrolls for September compared with expectations of an increase of close to 50,000 while there was a big downward revision to August.

The data increased market concerns over the labour market and fuelled demand for more labour-market data.

The government shutdown, however, will cause substantial disruption with the weekly jobless claims data and Friday’s employment report expected to be postponed.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore commented; "We're in a bit of a void. We're effectively done now, in terms of market-moving data, until October 13."

Rabobank added; “policymakers, businesses, investors and economists will not be flying blind completely, but they are likely to experience limited visibility.”

In the absence of official data, other data could gain additional impact.

On Thursday, the latest Challenger data on layoffs will be released.

According to ING; “With jobless claims not expected today, Challenger job cuts for September could have an outsized impact. The dollar still looks vulnerable, but in the absence of strong catalysts, markets may become more selective rather than broadly selling USD.”

At this stage, markets are pricing in close to a 100% chance of a further interest rate cut at the October meeting and over an 85% chance of a further cut in December.

The lack of data could have an impact on Fed thinking, especially as there are notable divisions within the central bank.

Rabobank commented; “The next FOMC meeting takes place on October 28- 29. So, if the shutdown lasts more than four weeks, this could complicate Fed decision making. Note that the BLS is also responsible for the CPI, which is scheduled for October 15. What’s more, the delay in the release of economic data could affect all federal statistical agencies, including the BEA, the Census Bureau, and the USDA.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts