British Pound to Dollar Forecast: $1.32 in Sights, Busy Week for GBP Ahead

Modified: Monday, 10 November 2025 12:11 BST - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK British Pound to Dollar Forecast: $1.32 in Sights, Busy Week for GBP Ahead

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) has recently recovered to around 1.31769 (+0.27%) after testing six-month lows near 1.30.

However, the upside momentum remains fragile as traders assess the growing risk of a Bank of England rate cut in December.

With a busy economic calendar ahead, including key UK data releases such as jobs, wages, and Q3 GDP, Sterling faces a crucial period.

"Sterling traders face a busy week — jobs, wages, and Q3 GDP are due, followed by CPI next week and the UK budget on 26 November, " said Chris Weston at Pepperstone.

"GBP swaps currently imply a 65% chance of a BoE rate cut on 18 December. Incoming data could shift that pricing, influencing GBP direction," he added.
Chris Weston - Pepperstone

GBP/USD Forecasts: December BoE Cut?

Credit Agricole now forecasts that the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate will be held to 1.32 by the end of 2026.

Rabobank has a 12-month forecast of 1.35.

GBP/USD dipped sharply to 6-month lows at 1.3000 during the week before recovering to 1.3165 as the dollar retraced its gains.

Credit Agricole commented; “We revise down our GBP forecasts for a second time this year because downside risks to the UK growth outlook have intensified further and fuelled expectations of more aggressive BoE easing from here, in a blow to the GBP across the board.”

The Bank of England held interest rates at 4.00%, but there was a dovish vote split, and comments from Governor Bailey suggested that he will back a cut in December once the budget has been delivered.

Danske Bank commented; “We now expect the BoE to deliver the next cut in the Bank Rate in December, where we also think fresh government spending cuts will call for further easing.”

The bank, however, expects only one further cut next year; “We expect the April meeting to conclude the easing cycle with the Bank Rate at 3.50%.”

Rabobank notes the dovish shift and hints from Bailey that he would back a cut next month.

The bank is still hesitant to bring forward the call for the next rate cut from February to December.

However, it added; “If the Budget delivers front-loaded and meaningful consolidation, it could strengthen the MPC’s confidence that rates can be cut further. That, in turn, could prompt us to revise our forecast and bring the next cut forward to December.”

The US labour-market data was mixed during the week.

ADP reported an increase in private payrolls of 42,000 for October following a revised 29,000 decline the previous month.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts