GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Drifts Near $1.36

Modified: Tuesday, 10 February 2026 20:01 BST - Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Drifts Near $1.36

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) struggled to gain momentum on Tuesday, with renewed political uncertainty in the UK weighing on Sterling sentiment.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3679, down close to 0.2% on the session as investors remained cautious.

The Pound stayed on the back foot as markets continued to digest a turbulent period for the UK government. Confidence was shaken by the resignation of two senior aides and renewed scrutiny of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership.

Adding to the pressure, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar publicly urged Starmer to step aside, reigniting debate over the Prime Minister’s grip on power. While Starmer has resisted calls to resign, attention is already shifting to the upcoming Manchester by-election, where a poor result for Labour could intensify leadership concerns and keep Sterling exposed.

The US Dollar initially traded firmer, benefiting from a broader recovery in US markets. However, the Greenback’s upside proved limited after the release of disappointing US retail sales data.

Figures showed sales growth flatlined in December, undershooting expectations for a 0.4% rise. The miss revived concerns about the strength of US consumer spending and nudged markets toward more dovish Federal Reserve rate expectations, capping USD gains.

GBP/USD Forecast: Jobs Data and UK GDP in Focus

Looking ahead, the Pound to Dollar exchange rate could see increased volatility with the release of the latest US non-farm payrolls report. Forecasts point to job growth of around 70,000 in January, up from December’s 50,000 gain.

Given the recent run of weaker labour indicators, another soft reading could reinforce expectations for Fed rate cuts and place renewed pressure on the Dollar.

For Sterling, attention will turn to Thursday’s UK GDP figures. With domestic data scarce and political risks elevated, the Pound may struggle to find clear direction unless growth data delivers a meaningful surprise.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts