Pound-to-Euro Forecast: GBP/EUR Steady as Labour Data Looms

Modified: Monday, 10 November 2025 23:00 BST - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound-to-Euro Forecast: GBP/EUR Steady as Labour Data Looms

The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) moved without clear direction on Monday, with a quiet economic calendar leaving the pairing at the mercy of broader market sentiment.

At the time of writing, GBP/EUR was hovering around €1.1390, having traded within a tight band throughout the morning session.

The Pound (GBP) traded without clear direction on Monday, with investors reluctant to make bold moves ahead of Tuesday’s key UK employment figures. In the absence of new domestic data, Sterling’s performance largely mirrored broader market sentiment.

A generally upbeat tone across global markets offered some limited support to the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound, as optimism grew over progress in resolving the US government shutdown.

However, the lingering impact of last week’s Bank of England (BoE) decision continued to weigh on GBP. The central bank’s dovish tone has fuelled expectations of another rate cut in December, preventing Sterling from capitalising on the brighter market mood.

The Euro (EUR) traded mixed on Monday, with a lack of fresh Eurozone data leaving investors to weigh competing influences in the broader market.

Sentiment toward the single currency improved after European carmakers received long-awaited Chinese computer chips, following Beijing’s decision to ease export restrictions. Factories had been close to potential production shutdowns, so this news lifted confidence in the Eurozone’s industrial outlook.

However, the Euro’s upside was capped by renewed geopolitical concerns. Drone activity in Belgium over the weekend caused flight delays at Liège airport and sightings near the Doel nuclear power plant. Reports suggesting possible Russian involvement in the incidents unsettled markets, tempering appetite for the Euro.

GBP/EUR Forecast: Pound Vulnerable to Weaker Jobs Data

Looking ahead, attention turns to the UK’s latest labour market report, which could prove pivotal for the Pound. Any evidence of a cooling jobs market is likely to drag on Sterling sentiment.

Economists expect unemployment to have edged higher in the three months to September, rising from 4.8% to 4.9% – the highest level in more than four years. Regular pay growth is also projected to slow, easing from 4.7% to 4.6%.

If these figures meet forecasts, it would reinforce market expectations that the Bank of England will deliver another rate cut in December, with further monetary easing likely in 2026. Such a shift in outlook could leave the Pound under pressure.

Meanwhile, the Euro could find modest support from Germany’s latest ZEW economic sentiment index. Analysts predict a small uptick in confidence for November, suggesting improving optimism in the Eurozone’s largest economy.

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts