GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Struggles as BoE Cut Bets Build

Modified: Monday, 17 November 2025 23:30 BST - Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Struggles as BoE Cut Bets Build

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) saw limited movement on Monday as markets continued to reassess expectations for future Federal Reserve monetary policy.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3171, virtually unchanged from Monday’s opening levels.

The US Dollar (USD) strengthened at the start of the week as investors further unwound expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut.

The likelihood of a December reduction has fallen sharply to around 45%, from roughly 90% just a month ago.

A cautious global mood also underpinned the Greenback, with weaker-than-expected Q3 GDP readings from Japan and Switzerland heightening concerns about global growth and prompting renewed demand for safe-haven assets such as the Dollar.

The Pound (GBP), meanwhile, traded broadly sideways as uncertainty surrounding the UK’s autumn budget continued to act as a drag on Sterling sentiment.

Markets remain unsure of the size of the UK’s fiscal gap and which measures Chancellor Rachel Reeves may introduce to plug it.

Reeves had previously signalled that income tax could rise, but reports last week suggesting she had backed away from the idea unsettled investors, pushing gilt yields higher and knocking Sterling.

Compounding budget anxiety are expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may cut rates next month, keeping a lid on GBP buying interest.

GBP/USD Forecast: ADP Jobs Data Could Pressure the Dollar

Looking ahead, Tuesday’s US ADP employment report will be in sharp focus.

If the figures reveal another slowdown in private-sector hiring, the Dollar may weaken as markets reassess the Fed’s recent hawkish tilt.

For Sterling, attention will shift to comments from BoE policymaker Swati Dhingra, one of the Monetary Policy Committee’s most dovish members.

Any hint of support for further easing could reinforce expectations of a December rate cut and exert renewed pressure on the Pound.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts