GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Steady as Markets Brace for UK Budget

Modified: Monday, 24 November 2025 22:35 BST - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Steady as Markets Brace for UK Budget

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) moved little on Monday, with traders staying cautious ahead of Wednesday’s autumn budget.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3095, showing minimal movement since markets opened.

The Pound (GBP) held to a narrow range on Monday, with traders opting for caution as they awaited fresh clarity from Westminster. The absence of new UK data left sentiment largely unchanged, while all eyes turned to Wednesday’s autumn budget.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is preparing to unveil the government’s fiscal blueprint for the year ahead — a challenging balance between supporting economic growth, maintaining fiscal credibility, and managing competing political pressures within the Labour Party.

With so much riding on Wednesday’s announcement, investors hesitated to reposition Sterling without firmer clues on the government’s direction.

The US Dollar (USD) also traded sideways on Monday, with investors uncertain about how the Federal Reserve will guide policy in the coming months.

The currency drew strong support last week as markets tilted toward a more hawkish Fed outlook. That momentum faded after policymaker John Williams struck a softer tone, prompting the Dollar to relinquish part of its recent gains.

By Monday, the ‘Greenback’ had stabilised, with traders opting for restraint while awaiting further Fed commentary and upcoming US data releases.

GBP/USD Exchange Rate Outlook: US Jobs Data to Weigh on the Dollar?

The Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) distributive trades survey is the sole UK release on Tuesday, and the Pound may struggle if the data disappoints. Sales volumes are expected to fall further in November — from -27 to -30 — signalling ongoing pressure on consumer demand. Any such weakness could lightly weigh on Sterling.

In the US, attention turns to the latest ADP employment change data. Following two consecutive declines, another soft print would reinforce concerns that the labour market is losing momentum. Weakening employment trends typically heighten expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which could put pressure on the US Dollar.

However, the ‘Greenback’ may find some support from additional data due on Tuesday. Producer prices for September are forecast to rise, while retail sales are expected to remain in positive territory — both reminders that underlying demand in the US economy remains resilient.

Broader market sentiment will also play a key role. A risk-on shift would tend to support the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound, while any deterioration in confidence could steer investors back toward the safer US Dollar, limiting potential USD losses.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts