British Pound to Euro Forecast: Super Thursday Looms for GBP/EUR

Modified: Tuesday, 16 June 2026 17:36 BST - Written by James Fuller

STORY LINK British Pound to Euro Forecast: Super Thursday Looms for GBP/EUR

The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) enters a pivotal week on the back foot, slipping back towards 1.1560 as investors prepare for a potentially market-moving combination of economic data, central bank decisions and political developments.

With the Bank of England policy meeting, UK inflation data and the closely watched Makerfield by-election all due within days, Sterling faces one of its most important tests of the year.

GBP/EUR Forecasts: Retreat Ahead of “Super Thursday”

After failing to make a break above 1.16 last week, the Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate dipped to 1.1560 on Monday.

There are important economic and political risks for the Pound this week with the Bank of England (BoE) policy meeting and Makerfield by-election.

ING noted the resistance just above 1.16 and commented; “EUR/GBP is currently holding strong support in the 0.8610/15 area, and we would expect that to hold this week.”

MUFG is less bearish on the Pound; “Support for the GBP from lower energy prices should help offset headwinds from the scaling back of BoE rate hike expectations.”

The BoE has a lot to digest at this monetary policy meeting. Ahead of the formal decision, the latest inflation data is due for release on Wednesday. The headline inflation rate is due to increase to 3.0% from 2.8% with the core rate at 2.7% from 2.5%.

Higher than expected data would make it more difficult to hold rates. The latest jobs data is due on Thursday with markets also monitoring data on payrolls after a very weak set of data last month.

There has been a significant further decline in oil prices on Monday amid the tentative US-Iran deal which would involve an opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

MUFG commented; “The BoE has recently signaled that it is not in a rush to begin raising rates and is expected to leave policy unchanged in the week ahead.”

According to ING; “Lower energy prices can prompt questions about whether the BoE needs to hike at all, and Governor Andrew Bailey will have to walk a fine line this Thursday.”

The Makerfield by-election will be held on Thursday with the result due in the early hours of Friday.

Prime Minister Starmer came under renewed pressure late last week after the Defence Minister announced his resignation over the spending review and the election result will have very important implications

ING commented; “A victory by Andy Burnham would formally fire the starting pistol on the Labour leadership contest and likely weigh on sterling.”

According to Monex Europe head of macro research Nick Rees; "We are still bearish on sterling on the back of the political developments we think are coming in the near term.

Standard Chartered is wary over the Euro; “The Euro area is experiencing a ‘stagflationary’ risk – growth is below expectations, especially in Germany and France, while inflation is above target and surprising to the upside.”

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts