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Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Forecast For GBP EUR And Predictions For USD & CAD

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The POUND STERLING has once again suffered a torrid session in the currency markets following this morning’s publication of official UK GDP growth estimates for Q4 2012. The numbers showed that the flagging UK economy shrank by a larger than anticipated 0.3% during the final three months of last year. The figure is unlikely to convince the credit ratings agencies that the UK is able to service its massive £1trillion + nation debt. The Pound heads into next week on a NEGATIVE footing.

A strong showing for the latest German IFO Business Climate Survey for January ensured that the single currency started the day on a positive footing. Today’s report issued by the European Central Bank which revealed that the eurozone’s retail banking sector has started paying back the €1 trillion which it drew down from the ECB’s emergency fund last year has provided further good news. The Pound Euro exchange rate (currency : GBP EUR) stands at 1.1745 and the single currency is expected to trade on a NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE footing in the short term.

The US DOLLAR has leaked support against the Pound so far today, sending the GBP USD exchange rate to 1.5810 this afternoon. A generally positive performance from global stock markets over the past 24hrs has heaped pressure on the safe-haven ‘Buck’ and there has been little in the way of US data release to rectify this today. The Greenback is expected to trade with a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE bias in the lead-up to Monday’s key US Durable Goods data.

The CANADIAN DOLLAR has given up a significant amount of ground against the other major global currencies on the day. It was the third day of losses on the trot for the CAD as investors scrambled to adjust their positions to factor-in a reduced likelihood of a near-term interest rate rise from the Bank of Canada. This afternoon’s lower-than-anticipated Canadian inflation data added to the feeling that a tightening of domestic monetary policy is unlikely. The current GBP CAD exchange rate stands at 1.5954 and the ‘Loonie’ is expected to trade on a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE footing moving forward.



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