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Pound Euro Exchange Rate Drops to 1.16 Today as Haldane Forecast Hits Home

January 6, 2017 - Written by Ben Hughes

GBP EUR Exchange Rate Recap: Major Pound Losses Follow Haldane’s BoE Forecast

The Pound has shed any gains recorded against the Euro on Thursday after the positive services PMI result, and has instead slumped by -0.3% against the Euro.

The source of the waning demand for GBP has been Bank of England (BoE) official Andy Haldane, who in addition to apologising for ‘scaremongering’ BoE forecasts before the Referendum, also offered some thoughts on future GBP movement.

Speaking on Thursday afternoon, Haldane erred on the cautious side, stating that if UK inflation continued to rise as forecast, the lowest earners in the UK could face mounting difficulties in paying for basic goods and services.

Pound Euro Exchange Rate Outlook: Limited UK Data Out Next Week, GBP Could be Left High and Dry

After a data-packed first week of the year, the Pound does not seem likely to reap any such rewards next week, given that most of the major UK data is bunched up on Wednesday.

The ecostats include November’s trade balance figures, as well as construction output and manufacturing and industrial production numbers for the same month.

No estimates have been put out for trade deficit movement, but a slight advance is expected for the construction figure. Annual production is expected to improve, though any GBP EUR gains could be washed away on Thursday afternoon’s National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) GDP estimate.

EUR GBP Update: Single Currency Strength Follows Rise in December Eurozone Confidence

The Euro Pound exchange rate has made moderate gains today, thanks to the morning’s business confidence figures for December rising. Sentiment stats for the same month also showed improvement.

The morning’s only real poor piece of data was the Eurozone's retail sales stat for November. On the year, a dip from 3% to 2.3% was seen, while on the month, a slide from 1.4% to -0.4% gave investors pause for thought.

Euro Pound Exchange Rate Outlook: EUR Advantage Possible if German Growth Stats Match Forecasts Next Week

The coming week is scattered with a few high-impact Eurozone data releases, which stand to boost EUR GBP demand if they match up with current predictions.

Out on Monday will be Germany’s November trade balance, which has no predictions currently made, as well as the Eurozone-wide unemployment rate for the same month. In the latter case, a positive drop from 9.8% to 9.7% has been predicted.

Looking further ahead to the coming Thursday, the German annual GDP growth rate is due to have risen from 1.7% to 2% in 2016, although the Government budget has a converse dip from 1.7% to 0.5% expected.

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TAGS: Currency Predictions Euro Forecasts Euro Pound Forecasts

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