Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Buyers to Return "in 1.1500/1520 Area"

Modified: Wednesday, 6 August 2025 08:00 BST - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Buyers to Return "in 1.1500/1520 Area"

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) retreated to 1.1530 in Europe on Tuesday before edging back above 1.1550, as relatively tight ranges prevailed with markets waiting for fresh evidence on the economy and Fed policy.

According to UoB; “despite the strong surge in EUR last Friday, it is too early to expect a further sustained rise. We expected EUR to trade in a range between 1.1435 and 1.1660.”

Scotiabank notes the potential for further consolidation in the short term, but added; “A solid base looks to be in for the EUR on the daily chart now, however, at the 1.1395/00.”

It added; “A push back above key, short-term resistance at 1.16 would allow the EUR to regain 1.17+.”

ING sees scope for buying on dips; “We imagine buyers would return in the 1.1500/1520 area.”

As far as data is concerned, the US ISM services-sector index edged lower to 50.1 for July from 50.8 previously and below consensus forecasts of 51.5.

There was a steeper decline in employment while prices increased at the fastest rate since December 2022.


The data will trigger fresh concerns over stagflation with weak activity and stronger upward pressure on prices.

There were notable declines in imports and exports which will increase concerns over the economic impact of tariffs.

Markets will continue to focus on comments from Fed officials. According to San Francisco President Daly two rate cuts still looked realistic for this year, but noted that three cuts were possible. She added; "I was willing to wait another cycle, but I can't wait forever."

Markets remain very confident that the Fed will cut rates in September.

The issue of Fed appointments will also be a key market issue with expectations that President Trump will nominate a replacement for Governor Kugler.

There are also expectations that this nominee will be the next chair.

According to Trump, there is a short list of four including Kevin Warsh and Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett.


He stated that Treasury Secretary Bessent had ruled himself out.

According to Scotiabank; “President Trump’s firing of the head of the BLS and the announcement Friday that Fed President Kugler had resigned, giving the president an opportunity to quickly nominate a replacement will perhaps raise concerns about the resilience of US institutions and may result in investors demanding higher risk premiums for US assets.”

There were limited Euro-Zone developments during the day with a small downward revision to the PMI services-sector index, although it remained in expansion territory.

Scotiabank is still positive on the outlook; “Eurozone data surprises continue to run generally positive which should help keep the EUR outlook underpinned as investors start to anticipate the Fed catching up with the ECB’s aggressive policy easing.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts