Euro to Dollar Forecast: 1.1780 in Focus as Buyers Push Higher

Modified: Thursday, 14 August 2025 14:22 BST - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: 1.1780 in Focus as Buyers Push Higher

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has turned more bullish this week, rising to two-week highs near 1.1730 before consolidating just above 1.17. The move comes amid a softer US Dollar as traders see a September Federal Reserve rate cut as almost certain, political uncertainty in Washington, and improving short-term technical momentum for the euro.

Analysts agree that a sustained break above 1.1780 could mark a turning point, opening the way for a retest of July’s 45-month high at 1.1830 and potentially sparking fresh talk of gains towards the 1.20 level.

According to UoB, “Upward momentum is starting to build again, but at this time, it is not enough to suggest a sustained rise.” The bank added that a move above 1.1780 would be a “potential game-changer” for the pair.

Scotiabank observed that “the EUR’s latest gains have delivered a near full retracement of the decline from late July and the EUR is once again threatening fresh multi-year highs.”

EUR/USD posted a 45-month high of 1.1830 at the start of July. Scotiabank sees a near-term range “between 1.1650 support and 1.1750 resistance.”

Markets remain confident that the Fed will act next month, with futures pricing close to a 95% probability of a September cut. ING noted that disinflation pressure will persist: “With the jobs market not looking as solid as it did earlier in the year and consensus GDP growth forecasts having been cut from 2.5% at the beginning of this year down to 1.5% we believe the Fed will cut the policy rate in September and follow up with additional 25bp cuts in October and December.”

US Treasury Secretary Bessent has stepped up calls for a 50-basis point cut in September, arguing that rates should be in a 2.75-3.00% range from the current 4.50%.


Bloomberg also reported remarks from E.J. Antoni — whom President Trump plans to nominate as the next Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner — suggesting monthly jobs data be replaced with quarterly releases. The comments, made before his nomination, have raised concerns over data transparency and the administration’s stance, particularly with Trump continuing his attacks on the Fed and its chair.

Scotiabank noted: “USD selling pressure had abated until President Trump repeated his criticism of Fed Chair Powell and suggested that he might allow a ‘lawsuit’ against Powell to proceed.”

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister warned of uncomfortable parallels: “Increasingly this carries echoes of autocratic countries, where the heads of statistics agencies or central banks are being replaced. In these countries, critical data series are often discontinued and then reinstated a few months later after the ‘problems’ have supposedly been corrected, with significantly better values.”

He added: “I'm not saying that this will necessarily happen here. But the developments of the last few days and weeks do not exactly fill me with optimism about the future – or the US dollar.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts