Pound-to-Euro Flat as Mixed German Data Limits EUR

Modified: Friday, 10 April 2026 08:36 BST - Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound-to-Euro Flat as Mixed German Data Limits EUR

The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate traded within a tight range on Thursday, as investors weighed up a mixed batch of German economic releases.

At the time of writing, GBP/EUR was hovering around €1.1483, little changed from the opening levels of the session.

The Euro (EUR) struggled to find a clear trend following the publication of contrasting data from Germany.

Exports delivered a strong upside surprise, rising by 3.6% in February and marking the fastest pace of growth in almost two years, signalling resilience in external demand.

However, this upbeat print was counterbalanced by weaker industrial production, which unexpectedly shrank by around 0.3% over the same period, disappointing forecasts for modest expansion.

The conflicting signals from Europe’s largest economy left investors hesitant, while ongoing uncertainty surrounding the delicate US–Iran ceasefire further dampened appetite for the single currency.

The Pound (GBP) also struggled for momentum, as a fresh rise in UK government bond yields weighed on sentiment.

Markets were unsettled by renewed doubts over the stability of the US–Iran ceasefire, after comments from US President Donald Trump suggested the agreement may not hold.

This uncertainty has kept volatility elevated, particularly in energy markets where prices remain highly reactive to developments involving the Strait of Hormuz.

As a result, UK gilt yields climbed once more, with the 10-year yield reversing part of the previous session’s decline as investors braced for the potential inflationary impact of higher energy costs.

Short-Term GBP/EUR Forecast: Ceasefire Developments in Focus

The direction of the Pound to Euro exchange rate is likely to remain closely tied to developments in the Middle East.

If concerns continue to grow that the ceasefire could unravel, the Pound may come under pressure as investors shift toward safer assets such as the Euro.

Meanwhile, attention for EUR investors will turn to remarks from European Central Bank Vice-President Luis de Guindos.

Any indication that policymakers may need to respond to rising energy-driven inflation could lend additional support to the single currency.

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts