Euro to Dollar Rate Outlook: Trump’s Fed Moves Lift EUR/USD to 10-Day High

Published: Monday, 11 August 2025 08:00 BST - Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Rate Outlook: Trump’s Fed Moves Lift EUR/USD to 10-Day High

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate jumped to 10-day highs near 1.1700 last Thursday as the US currency came under pressure amid fresh concerns over President Trump’s campaign to force lower interest rates. The pair retreated to just below 1.1650 on Friday with some reluctance to chase the pair higher.

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) – Key Market Drivers

• EUR/USD hits 10-day high near 1.1700 as Trump pressures Fed for lower rates
• Stephen Miran’s Fed nomination fuels talk of a dovish shift and weaker dollar
• Markets eye US CPI data and US–EU trade talks for next EUR/USD move

According to UoB; “Today, the slight increase in upward momentum may lead to EUR retesting, and potentially edging above the 1.1700 level.

It does not expect an immediate break of 1.1720, but added that any move would lead to 1.1770.

ING sees near-term resistance at 1.17 and added; “Next week’s US CPI will tell us whether another break higher is possible.”

Federal Reserve and Administration policies will remain crucial in the short term.

After the European close on Thursday, President Trump nominated Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran for a newly vacant seat at the Federal Reserve.


Earlier this year, Miran released a research paper outlining the case for weakening the dollar without jeopardising its reserve status.

In essence, this would be done through tariffs and co-operation from other major countries to weaken the currency through intervention.

Miran’s appointment will reinforce concerns that the Administration will push for a weaker dollar and undermine Fed independence.

J.P. Morgan global market strategist Raisah Rasid played down the potential impact; "We still maintain that central bank independence is going to be very much intact. We're looking for a bending but not breaking sort of scenario (on the dollar)."

There will also be an intense debate surrounding interest rates with expectations that Miran will push for lower interest rates.

Danske Bank noted; “Miran is known for advocating lower interest rates, reinforcing a dovish tilt.”

Markets will also be looking at the issue of who will be nominated as the next Fed Chair


Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia commented; "Depending on the president’s perception of his performance, he may also be a contender to replace Chair Powell when his term ends in May."

On Thursday, however, there was talk that Trump would prefer current Governor Waller to succeed Powell as Chair next May.

Although Waller has switched to a dovish stance on rates, his nomination would offer some underlying reassurance.

ING noted the potential balancing forces. On Miran it noted; “He’s widely expected to join Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman in the dovish camp for the few meetings he will attend, with a non-negligible risk he might try to build consensus for a 50bp move.”

It added; “But this is an interim position, and reports suggesting that Waller (a more moderate dove than Kevin Hassett) is now the favourite to replace Fed Chair Jay Powell may well have mitigated the downside impact for short-term rates.”

As far as the Euro-Zone is concerned, markets will continue to monitor detailed negotiations surrounding the US-EU trade deal.

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts